Showing posts with label government unemployment rate. Show all posts
Showing posts with label government unemployment rate. Show all posts

Monday, March 16, 2015

Nearly At ‘Full Employment’? 10 Reasons Why The Unemployment Numbers Are A Massive Lie

On Friday, we learned that the official “unemployment rate” has fallen to 5.5 percent. Since an unemployment rate of 5 percent is considered to be “full employment” by many economists, many in the mainstream media took this as a sign that the U.S. economy has almost fully “recovered” since the last recession. 

In fact, according to the Wall Street Journal, some Federal Reserve officials believe that “the U.S. economy is already at full employment."  But how can this possibly be?  It certainly does not square with reality.  People that have been struggling with unemployment for years and that still cannot find a decent job. 

So what in the world is going on?  How can the government be telling us that we are nearly at “full employment” when so many people can’t find work?  Could it be possible that the government numbers are misleading?

The official “unemployment rate” (U3) has become so politicized and so manipulated that it is essentially meaningless at this point.  The following are 10 reasons why…
#1 Since February 2008, the size of the U.S. population has grown by 16.8 million people, but the number of full-time jobs has actually decreased by 140,000.


#2 The percentage of working age Americans that have a job right now is still about the same as it was during the depths of the last recession.  Posted below is a chart that shows how the employment-population ratio has changed since the beginning of the decade.  Does this look like a full-blown “employment recovery” to you?…


Employment-Population-Ratio-2015

#3 The primary reason for the decline in the official “unemployment rate” is the fact that the government now considers millions upon millions of long-term unemployed workers to “no longer be in the labor force."  Just check out the following numbers
The number of Americans participating in the labor force has been on a decline for the past few years. Nearly 33 percent of the Americans above age 16 are not part of the workforce, the highest number since 1978. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report issued recently has found 92,898,000 Americans above age 16 not a part of the labor force of the country as on February 2015. When President Obama took over the office in January 2009, nearly 80,529,000 Americans were not a part of the labor force. The number has increase by nearly 12 million over the last few years.

#4 Over the past couple of years, the labor force participation rate in this country has been hovering near mutli-decade lows
The labor force participation rate hovered between 62.9 percent and 62.7 percent in the eleven months from April 2014 through February, and has been 62.9 percent or lower in 13 of the 17 months since October 2013. Prior to that, the last time the rate was below 63 percent was 37 years ago, in March 1978 when it was 62.8 percent, the same rate it was in February.

#5 When you add the number of “officially unemployed” Americans (8.7 million) to the number of Americans “not in the labor force” (92.9 million), you get a grand total of 101.6 million working age Americans that do not have a job right now.  Does that sound like “full employment” to you?

#6 The quality of our jobs continues to decline.  Right now, only 44 percent of U.S. adults are employed for 30 or more hours each week.

#7 Millions upon millions of Americans have been forced to take part-time jobs because that is all they can find, and wages for American workers are at depressingly low levels.  The following numbers come directly from the Social Security Administration
-39 percent of American workers make less than $20,000 a year.

-52 percent of American workers make less than $30,000 a year.

-63 percent of American workers make less than $40,000 a year.

-72 percent of American workers make less than $50,000 a year.

#8 The average duration of unemployment for an unemployed worker is still about twice as long as it was just prior to the last recession.

#9 Most Americans feel as though the Obama administration has done little to nothing to help the middle class.  Just consider the following poll numbers
According to a new poll by the Pew Research Center, Americans see government policies under the Obama administration as having mostly benefited wealthy people, large corporations and financial institutions.

Seventy-two percent of respondents said government policies have done little or nothing to help the middle class, and 65 percent said they have done nothing to help the poor. Sixty-eight percent said the policies have done nothing to help small businesses.

Meanwhile, 45 percent said the policies have done a “great deal” to help large banks and financial institutions, 38 percent say they have helped large corporations, and 36 percent say they have helped the wealthy.

#10 If the unemployment rate was calculated honestly, we would all be talking about the horrific “unemployment crisis” that we were currently enduring.  According to John Williams of shadowstats.com, the real unemployment rate in the United States right now is above 23%.


U.S. politicians and the corporate mainstream media are attempting to convince us that everything is just fine. But what they are telling us simply does not match the cold, hard reality on the streets.

And since the talking heads on television are proclaiming that we are nearly at “full employment," that just makes millions upon millions of Americans that can’t seem to find work no matter how hard they try feel even worse than they already do.

If jobs are “easy to get," then those that are chronically unemployment must have “something wrong” with them.  That is the message that we are being given.  If the mainstream media says that unemployment has gone way down, then anyone that is still unemployed must be really “lazy," right?

When you are unemployed for an extended period of time, it can really suck the life right out of you.  It can be really tempting to believe that you are viewed as a failure by your family and friends.  And for the government to lie to us like this just makes things even harder.

If you are unemployed and can’t find a job right now, I want you to understand that you are caught in the midst of a long-term downward economic spiral which is going to get a lot worse.

When the government tells you that we are in a “recovery," they are lying to you. And when the government tells you that things are about to get a lot better, they are lying to you.

Source

Saturday, July 21, 2012

The GOP's Goal of Disabling the Government

by ROBERT HUNZIKER
 
The “GOP right wing is serious about disabling government.” This is the chilling byline from The Hill’s Congress Blog, July 19, 2012 by Former Rep. Sherwood Boehlert (R-NY) referencing:  H.R. 4078- Red Tape Reduction and Small Business Job Creation Act.

H.R. 4078 will be considered by the House next week, and according to former Rep. Boehlert, “If one wants to fully appreciate the stranglehold the right wing has on the Republican Congressional agenda, and its attendant dangers, one need look no further than the bill the House plans to consider… which would shut down the entire regulatory system.” 

The message behind this Republican-sponsored bill to the Democrats is: Put this in your pipe and smoke it you wild-eyed, chicken-livered, pantywaisted, pinko, lefty liberals. And, just to reflect, Ann Coulter is the one who famously said, “ The left is out to destroy the country.”

H. R. 4078 places a moratorium on the issuance of all new major governmental regulations, until unemployment averages 6%, or less, for an entire quarter. This bill is so cleverly worded that it essentially shuts down the future of government, including the prospect that, if a newly elected President Romney wants to impose new limitations on how government funds are expended, so sorry.  He’ll be blocked. Therefore, it is clear the right-wingers do not even trust their own kind, and what an irony considering it is reasonably probable the billionaire right-wingers will purchase the presidency but will not know what to do with it!

The media has largely ignored H.R. 4078 because the whole affaire surrounding the bill seems so far-fetched and ignorant they figure there is no way that Congress could be stupid enough to literally tie the hands of the government. For example, what if a brilliant bill is initiated to help prevent another financial meltdown? Nope! No can do because the H.R. 4078 prohibits issuance of new standards and safeguards and any action that might lead to the issuance of new standards and safeguards.

This bunch of Republicans now running our Congress constitute a throw back to the acumen of an earlier era when the nation’s top ranking leadership was characterized by then-Vice President Dan Quayle, and one of his famous statements: “I was recently on a tour of Latin America, and the only regret I have was that I didn’t study Latin harder in school so I could converse with those people.”  This festering Quaylitis virus, similar to the Black Plague of old, re-emerges every so often, and it bewilders every politician it touches. The recent outbreak appears to have already infected a large component of the Republicans on the Hill.

In combination with Tea Partiers and the other heavy-duty right-wing extremists, the virus is an unbelievably toxic cocktail, something the country has never witnessed before. It is not a stretch of one’s imagination to say the country is now in the hands of a revitalized Know-Nothing Party (1850s), a bunch of xenophobes who form secretive groups to influence national policy by hiding within the dark enclaves of Citizens United, spewing out falsehoods so flamboyantly outrageous as to confuse a credulous public that falls head over heels for the faux credibility of TV’s electronic signal warfare, capturing the minds and the voters of the country by instilling fear of the present and despair for the future. This is the Know-Nothing way!

These Know-Nothings amazingly link ‘employment’ and ‘regulations’ as if a freeze on regulations will lift employment; otherwise, why set criteria of 6% unemployment as the hallmark for success of the bill? This is a patently false claim that has been roundly debunked by: the Economic Policy Institute, American Sustainable Business Council, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and, American Association of University Professors.

Furthermore, according to the Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission, “Widespread failures in financial regulation and supervision proved devastating to the stability of the nation’s financial markets,” leading to the Great Financial Meltdown of 2007-08. H.R. 4078 throws out the window any possibility of window dressing to address the systemic cancerous outgrowth of a failed regulatory environment that nearly shattered the country.

And, unbeknownst to the Know Nothings, their bill will step on the toes of their colleagues because the proposed act will hit the NRA and Dick Cheney’s hunting escapades right between the eyes. Every year the Fish and Wildlife Service analyzes data to determine appropriate bird hunting season for each state. The Migratory Bird Hunting study tells hunters which birds they can hunt, when seasons begin and end, where hunting is permitted, kill limits, etc. The Regulatory Freeze Act, H.R. 4078 will block this annual regulatory action. Where, when, and what will they hunt? This could lead to nationwide pandemonium with orange-suited hunters blasting away at anything, and everything, that flies!

And, even more alarming yet, the bill endangers the health of the nation at large because, every five years, Congress reauthorizes the Prescription Drug and User Fee Act, establishing the framework for FDA approval of new medicines and new medical devices. Reauthorization of this act is scheduled for 2012.

The bill sponsor is Tim Griffin (R-AR), and there are 20 Republican co-sponsors with no Democrats on board. Griffin is the one who infamously resigned from his position with George W. Bush’s re-election campaign after his Swift Boat (2004) involvement became public.

Previously Griffin was a legal advisor for the Bush-Cheney 2000 Florida Recount Team, and appearing in a BBC documentary, “Digging the Dirt,” he stated, “We think of ourselves as the creators of the ammunition in a war. We make the bullets.” During Griffin’s 2010 campaign for the House, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington named him as one of the “Crooked Candidates of 2010.” He has served in the House since January 3, 2011.

Griffin believes new regulations and/or changes in regulations hurt the economy, and he opines a moratorium on regulations will increase employment… What?  However, it is worth noting his bill does have limited exemptions to respond to health or safety threats to the country and for national security.

Nevertheless, the Congressional Budge Office says the bill could have a big, and hard to predict, effect on revenue, spending and implementation of legislation. As currently written, the bill will prevent annual updates of Medicare service payment levels, and it will delay implementation of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, 2010, informally referred to as Obamacare, including provisions for creation of a new system of health insurance.

Additionally, the bill appears to eradicate numerous pending energy-related bills like a New Refinery Standards act and a new EPA Fracking Rule as well as new energy standards for housing and industrial coolers.

You can bet your bottom dollar this bill is destined to become a very expensive affair, but whether it passes, or not, that is altogether another story for another time.

Friday, January 6, 2012

Alternate Unemployment Charts - The REAL Numbers


The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.


 Courtesy of ShadowStats.com

Sunday, October 9, 2011

Average Duration Of Unemployment Rises To New All Time High

Source: Zero Hedge
October 7, 2011

As noted previously, one key fly in the ointment in an otherwise better than expected jobs report (in which the participation rate also trended higher for a welcome change) was the manufacturing jobs data, which declined by 13,000. Perhaps at the end of the day this is the most important data point, since while declining government jobs at the end of the day is a good thing, government workers don’t actually create anything of value for the economy.

And as the chart below demonstrates, the long term trend is certainly not our friend. The second “fly”, and the one that will certainly be used as a talking point by politicians, was the average unemployment duration. At 40.5 weeks, it just hit a new all time record. 


Unemployment Duration:
Average Duration Of Unemployment Rises To New All Time High unemp%20duration


Manufacturing Jobs:
Average Duration Of Unemployment Rises To New All Time High Manufacturing%20Jobs


Sunday, August 21, 2011

How the U3 Unemployment Rate is Calculated



This video shows how the official (U3) unemployment doesn't tell the real story when it comes to unemployment.


And this shows how unemployment has gotten worse geographically, where it hit the hardest, and how hard. It only goes to 2010, but you get the picture:


Sunday, June 26, 2011

Assets owned by General Electric; and the Bogus Unemployments Rate

 by Jef, your Spiderlegs Conundrum admin
 From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia, Census.gov, BLS.gov, & the Huffington Post

Primary business units of General Electric, Inc.

Healthcare

Media
¹Minority interest
²Stations which LIN Television owns a minority interest (24%) in

++++++++++++++++++++++++++

GE Aviation is a world-leading provider of commercial and military jet engines and components as well as avionics, electric power, and mechanical systems.

GE Transportation is a global technology leader and supplier to the railroad, marine, drilling, wind and mining industries. GE provides freight and passenger locomotives, railway signaling and communications systems, information technology solutions, marine engines, motorized drive systems for mining trucks and drills, high-quality replacement parts and value added services.

GE Healthcare provides transformational medical technologies and services that are shaping a new age of patient care. Our expertise in medical imaging and information technologies, medical diagnostics, patient monitoring systems, performance improvement, drug discovery, and biopharmaceutical manufacturing technologies is helping clinicians around the world re-imagine new ways to predict, diagnose, inform and treat disease, so their patients can live their lives to the fullest.

GE Capital is one of the world's largest providers of financing helping meet the financing needs for customers in more than 50 countries around the globe. For businesses, large and small, we deliver the capabilities that enable businesses to purchase, lease and distribute equipment, as well as capital for real estate and corporate acquisitions, refinancing and restructurings. For our 100+ million consumer customers, we offer credit cards, retail sales finance programs, home, car and personal loans and credit insurance. 

At GE Energy, solving our customers' toughest challenges is at the core of our business. As the demand for water, fuel, and electricity increases, GE continues to develop innovative products and services that help our customers serve the needs of people all over the world. Whether working with governments and communities to develop critical infrastructures or with suppliers to extend our factories and further globalize our platforms,  GE is building powerful partnerships that help us achieve mutual growth and success.  From our leading expertise to our technological innovation, no one is better equipped to power potential today and for years to come. Water & Process Technologies offers proven solutions and new approaches that can protect your high-value assets, maximize run times, reduce maintenance and save energy. Our leading chemical, filtration and separation technologies have a rich history of results in water and process applications.

NBCUniversal is one of the world’s leading media and entertainment companies in the development, production, and marketing of entertainment, news, and information to a global audience. NBCUniversal owns and operates a valuable portfolio of news and entertainment television networks, a premier motion picture company, significant television production operations, a leading television stations group, and world-renowned theme parks. Comcast Corporation owns a controlling 51% interest in NBCUniversal, with GE holding a 49% stake.

And the business for which GE is most known for...

GE is one of the largest manufacturers of major appliances in the world, producing Monogram®, GE Profile™ and many more brands. Discover how GE appliances deliver their remarkable efficiency. Built with reliability and usability in mind, GE products use the best of technology making life easier every room of the house. Since the day Thomas Edison discovered a better filament for the incandescent lamp, GE has been lighting up the world. 128 years later, we still provide a range of innovative products for consumer, commercial and industrial markets.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

So, here you have the industries of: home appliances, lighting, energy (incl. oil & gas), healthcare (incl. pharmaceuticals, accounting, software and technology), finance (investing, commercial loans, individual loans), transportation (rail, freight), aviation (incl defense/military technology and systems), and media.

Do you think they might have a few lobbyists in Washington, DC? Heh, yeah, they have quite the lobbying effort:



2010 Total Lobbying Expenditures: $39,290,000
Subtotal for Parent General Electric: $39,290,000 
General Electric Lobbying by Industry

Industry
Total
$525,000
$80,000
$30,000
$1,730,000
$120,000
$160,000
$534,000
$36,021,000



Two of the items in bold are industries which have had major legislation passed regarding those industries--the finance bill, the healthcare bill. Defense is bolded because because we are embroiled in 5 wars (so far) with others expected.But look at the category in which they spent the bulk of their lobbying cash: Misc. Manufacturing and Distributing.

There are several companies listed when you click that link. I picked Reynolds American because it sounded familiar, which it's the RJ Reynolds Tobacco Company with a new name. GE spent $1,926,881 lobbying for their stake in the tobacco industry.


Some of the lobbying firms GE hired:

Federal Policy Group - $840,000
Capitol Tax Partners -   $840,000
Ernst & Young  -  $600,000

Click on any of the industry links under GE lobbying expenses and you'll see breakdowns for where they spent their money. It's obvious that much of that misc $36 million went toward the defense, healthcare and financial industry lobbies, too, though they fell under misc.

Some other interesting items about GE:

Jeffrey R. Immelt, the chairman and chief executive of General Electric Co. tapped by President Barack Obama as his next top outside economic adviser, will be asked to guide the White House as it attempts to jump-start lackluster job creation and spur a muddled recovery. Immelt told analysts that he'll focus on tax policy and regulation.

GE represents the archetypal company that's hoarding cash, sending jobs overseas, relying on taxpayer bailouts and paying no taxes.

The company is sitting on $79 billion in cash, tops worldwide among non-financial publicly-traded companies, according to a Jan. 10 note by analysts at Standard and Poor's. In fact, GE's cash holdings are about 62 percent more than the next company, Toyota Motor Corp.

One in five American workers is jobless, or severely under-employed at a minimum wage job. The BLS U3 Current Population Survey unemployment rate (the one that is most used by the media, yet the least accurate) has been stuck above 9% for 20 consecutive months, the longest such streak since records began in 1948, according to the Labor Department. Of course, back then they used different numbers, like what the U6 reflects.  

The U3 is based on numbers gained by the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is a monthly survey of about 50,000 households conducted by the Bureau of the Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The sample is selected to represent the civilian noninstitutional population. Respondents are interviewed to obtain information about the employment status of each member of the household 15 years of age and older. However, published data focus on those ages 16 and over. The sample provides estimates for the nation as a whole and serves as part of model-based estimates for individual states and other geographic areas. You see, the U3 is not even real data--it's a sample of data from which the BLS make estimations of the actual numbers. It has no way to include factors like differences due to geographical regions, natural phenomenons (weather, natural disasters)--if several industries in a region layoff workers but the survey is conducted in a region in which there have been no layoffs, this data is not reflected. Yet it plays such an important role in determining such an important statistic.

The U3 does not include: 
  • workers who have given up looking for work but still want a job
  • workers who have given up looking for a job all together because they feel they can't find one
  • were kicked off unemployment
  • workers who have taken a lesser job that they normally would not hold because they cannot find suitable employment
The U6 includes all these people. All in all, U6 suggests a very different employment picture than U3 and today's headlines should be looked at with extreme caution.  The 9.1% (May 2011) number they throw around is an incomplete stat, purposely used to make unemployment seem better than it is, which is bad. People are suffering.

As you can see below (if you click the BLS Table A-15 link), the real unemployment rate for May was not 9.1% , but really 15.8%, and that still includes the U3 numbers which are estimations. I realize that all statistics in a country of 325 million people are estimations to some degree, but to rely upon a statistic which is purposefully incomplete is misleading at best, dishonest for sure. The U3 basis for determining unemployment was devised under Reagan but implemented either at the end of Bush I's term or beginning of Clinton's first term.

Here's how the Unemployment data breaks down in the BLS Table A-15**:
  • U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent of the civilian labor force
  • U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force
  • U-3 Current Population Survey--Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force; (official unemployment rate)
  • U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus discouraged workers
  • U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus all other persons marginally attached to the labor force, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force
  • U-6 Total unemployed, plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian labor force plus all persons marginally attached to the labor force

As the administration struggles to prod businesses to create jobs at home, GE has been busy sending them abroad. Since Immelt took over in 2001, GE has shed 34,000 jobs in the U.S., according to its most recent annual filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. But it's added 25,000 jobs overseas. At the end of 2009, GE employed 36,000 more people abroad than it did in the U.S. In 2000, it was nearly the opposite.

And rather than invest in the U.S., the company has decided to look elsewhere. In 2008 and 2009, GE decided to "indefinitely" reinvest prior-year earnings outside the country, according to SEC filings. That's helped the firm lower its tax rate. In 2009, GE effectively had a negative tax rate, thanks to the $498 million loss it booked on U.S. operations versus the $10.8 billion in earnings it booked abroad. GE realized a $1.1 billion tax benefit in 2009.

"...we think GE has something to teach businesses all across America," Obama told a crowd of GE workers at a plant in Schenectady, New York.

GE continues to benefit from lower costs thanks to the $55 billion of outstanding taxpayer-backed debt its finance unit has issued under a crisis-era program that was supposed to be for banks. All told, GE and its subsidiary, GE Capital, accessed nearly $100 billion through programs created by the Federal Reserve and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation to combat frozen credit markets.

And the GE CEO is Obama's go to guy for improving the economy and creating jobs. Does anyone else feel like this is the script for a really bad Twilight Zone episode? Is their a worse person Obama could have picked for this job? Maybe Lloyd Blankfein (Goldman Sachs CEO).

**NOTE: Persons marginally attached to the labor force are those who currently are neither working nor looking for work but indicate that they want and are available for a job and have looked for work sometime in the past 12 months. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached, have given a job-market related reason for not currently looking for work. Persons employed part time for economic reasons are those who want and are available for full-time work but have had to settle for a part-time schedule. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.

Thursday, February 17, 2011

How To Fake An Economic Recovery

By Giordano Bruno - Neithercorp Press
Published on 02-16-2011
 
This may be a highly distasteful proposition, but just for a moment, I want you to sit back, and imagine that you are a member of the corporate banking elite. You are a walking talking disease ridden power mad pustule who naively believes himself intellectually superior to the vast majority of humanity and above the inherent laws of conscience, honor, and general good taste. You are a villain in the purest sense, in that you not only do great harm to the world, you actually SEEK to do great harm to the world, if only to benefit yourself and your exclusive circle of “friends”; a clan of degenerate blood thirsty sociopaths with delusions of omnipotence that stalk the night like Armani wearing Chupacabra exsanguinating the joy from poor unsuspecting cultures. You are capable of anything, and sadly, you take “pride” in this fact…

You aren’t “rich” in the traditional sense. You aren’t a “Bill Gates” or a “Donald Trump” (I’m beginning to wonder if Donald Trump is even solvent, or if his entire fortune is a special-effect courtesy of NBC). No, you don’t “make” money, you MAKE the money. You are a global financier. You are a central banker. You create the fiat that the rest of the country uses to sustain its fantasy economy. You dominate trade through monopoly and corporate fraud. You control the flow of currency through an economic system using fractional reserve banking, artificially pegged interest rates, and your ever trusty printing press. You put your substantial monetary clout behind BOTH major political parties, and groom presidential candidates to your globalist standards.

Any politician who desires to climb the ladder of power turns to you for assistance, not the voting public. You have a tremendous financial stake in every corporate news provider in the country, if not own them outright. You invite their top reporters to posh banquets, give them unlimited access to prominent social figures and high rollers, and fly them to private alcohol addled orgies in the middle of the California Redwoods (I wish this was all made up). Forget responsible journalism, they love hanging out with you, and would probably write whatever you tell them to.

Now that you have placed yourself in the tight fitting shoes of the “enlightened few”, I want you to imagine that you have engineered an implosion in national credit sectors using ultra-low interest rates to fuel mortgage and derivatives bubbles that would contract at an unprecedented pace once it is revealed to the wider investment world that those equities which they prized only days before are now “toxic”, essentially worthless, due to mass debt defaults on loans which never should have been made in the first place. Yeah, you’re a real dirtbag.

Of course, you aren’t finished yet! Your ultimate goal is centralization, and the key to centralization is to remove all options available to the masses but one; the option which garners you the greatest amount of dominance. A global economic system based on a single world currency and a single unaccountable governing body would be ideal. What would you call this world currency? I don’t know, how about something innocuous sounding like….Special Drawing Rights (SDRs), which you can then label as a mere “basket of currencies” when it is really a parasitic financial instrumeunent meant to absorb currencies until it replaces them completely:
http://money.cnn.com/2011/02/10/markets/dollar/index.htm

http://www.rte.ie/news/2011/0214/g20-business.html

In order to begin instituting this world currency, you would first need to remove the standing world reserve currency from its exalted position, that currency being the U.S. dollar. This seems rather impossible to many mainstream analysts who cannot fathom the possibility of a breakdown in the mighty Greenback, but you have already set the stage. You have created a progressive debt singularity so immense that no amount of fiat, no amount of taxation, no amount of austerity could ever satiate its hunger. You now have the perfect excuse to print the dollar with wild abandon until its withered, corpsified remains are six feet underground, leaving the door wide open for the tap dancing fast-talking SDR to take its place.

The issue is, how do you convince the general public that all is well until you are ready to unleash hyperinflation and fiscal Armageddon? How do you make them believe with all their hearts that they are not in the midst of a debt meltdown and the end of their financial sovereignty, but basking in a full-on economic recovery?!

You can’t stop wealth destruction now that the avalanche has been set in motion. You can’t stop inflation and dollar devaluation (nor would you want to. Hey, you’re evil incarnate, remember?). The effects on mainstreet are beyond your ability to hide, but, what you CAN manipulate, are the statistics and indices that Americans rely on for psychological comfort. You give everyone a blindfold and a cigarette and you do what you do best; lie!

Here is a step by step guide to fabricating an economic recovery out of thin air….

Don’t Count The Unemployed, Discount Them: Jobless people are a real downer and a pesky nuisance because they represent living breathing proof that a recovery is not taking place. By most standards, a recovery in jobs markets can be claimed if meaningful evidence shows a return to unemployment standards (normal unemployment) set before the recession / depression was triggered. If you are a global banker today, however, this will not do. Instead, you simply change the definition of “normal unemployment”. Thus, the debilitating jobless rate which was originally thought of as “bad”, is now thought of as “natural”. You must then publish long-winded white papers using more subjective statistics devoid of common sense while feigning a logical pretense:
http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2011/el2011-05.html

This only satisfies a small portion of the populace, though. Next, you must rig the manner in which unemployment is calculated to always overlook certain subsections of jobless. Never count those people who have been unemployed so long that they no longer receive benefits. Always count people who are underemployed as fully employed, even if they are only able to scrape together ten hours a week through part time McSlavery. After this, change the manner in which raw data on unemployment is actually collected.

First, the Labor Department derives most of its raw data on unemployment not through any traditional mathematical means, but through two separate surveys which are open to wide interpretation; an establishment survey, and a household survey. The establishment survey is what we hear about at the beginning of every month, while the household survey tends to float under the mainstream radar. In 2009 and 2010, the Labor Department deemed the household survey data (a phone driven survey of 60,000 households) “more reliable” for indicating job growth, because it was supposedly accurate in counting small business hiring and self-employment. So, you have two separate surveys (unscientific indicators of employment) combined together to produce a job growth rate number, and an unemployment percentage, both of which represent, at the most, a GUESS on the current state of jobs in this country.

While the establishment survey showed only 36,000 jobs created, the household survey somehow showed around 600,000 new jobs created!?:
http://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Basically, the BLS is asking you to believe that over 600,000 people either started their own businesses, or were hired by home based businesses in the month of January alone. I’m curious as to where all the capital inflows are coming from to launch such a revolution in home entrepreneurship in the middle of the greatest credit crisis in history. Oh well, if the Labor Department says it’s true, it must be…

The juxtaposition of odd data collection methods is the reason why the government was able to claim a drop from 9.4% to 9% in the jobless rate while announcing only 36,000 jobs created! The household survey has become an incredibly useful tool for generating arbitrary employment data which can be molded to say whatever government officials and central bankers want it to say. Anyone who controls the source data for a calculation controls the outcome of that calculation. It’s that simple.

What I wouldn’t want, if I was the Labor Department, is for some outside independent citizens group to monitor my survey methods while in progress. That would make life for a statistical huckster very difficult indeed.

As Long As Stocks Are Green, The World Is Golden: Near zero interest rates can be very useful if a central bank wishes to throw a tidal wave of fiat into a particular index in order to make it appear healthy. Certainly, the Fed has avoided admitting to any manipulation of the stock market. QE measures are all “above the board”, and all is well in Bernanke’s Mayberry. A question arises here though that desperately begs to be answered; if the stock market’s meteoric rise from near destruction to the 12,000 point mark is “real”, and completely in tune with a legitimate recovery, then why is the Fed still keeping interest rates at near zero after almost three years, and why are they continuing quantitative easing measures? Could it be that without constant liquidity injections from the Fed, the stock market would once again collapse like a wet paper sack? We know that in 2009, it was revealed that bailout funds which were supposed to go towards muting the effects of toxic bank assets were actually being pumped into the equities of healthy banks instead, meaning,the money has not been allocated to the areas promised:
http://www.associatedcontent.com/article/143606/more_shocking_news_on_2009_bailout.html

We also know that top hedge fund managers have openly stated that stocks will remain bullish because QE funds are propping up the market:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/tepper-tells-cnbc-fed-will-prop-up-market-2010-09-24

And, frankly, if you are a global banking cartel intent on keeping the American people in the dark, it makes perfect sense to prop up stocks. A Dow in the green is like a mass dose of fiscal lithium; it calms investors into a stupor. Even people who are otherwise unconcerned about economics will keep track of the Dow as if it is a solid indicator of their personal financial safety. A great test would be to observe market reactions to a Federal Reserve interest rate hike and a freezing of QE in order to counter inflation. Will the Dow stand on its own two feet then? I seriously doubt it, but then again, I don’t know that the Fed will ever raise interest rates again…

Inflation? What Inflation?: Unmitigated inflation spells doom for any society. It’s like some monetary based animal instinct deep down in our collective unconscious. The moment we hear the word “inflation” or see prices rise dramatically, we revert to survival mode and begin honing our mammoth bone battle mallets. Governments and central banks throughout history have made it their top priority to hide the effects of inflation from the citizenry at all costs.

To mask inflation is nearly impossible, especially where commodities and base goods are concerned. That’s why our government and private central bank calculate the Consumer Price Index (CPI) without counting food or energy. Most grains and crude oil have doubled in price over the past year alone, and this does not reflect well on the safety of the dollar, or the effectiveness of liquidity measures by the Fed. China, whose inflation is but a prequel to our own, is also distancing food and energy price surges from its CPI numbers, giving the false impression of leveling markets:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/china-lowers-weighting-surging-food-prices-cpi

Corporate retail chains have a tendency to absorb rising prices of base goods to avoid alienating their customer foundation, hoping that the increases are temporary. When retailers realize that prices are not going to drop back down, they eventually relent, and shelf costs skyrocket. The bottom line is clear; overall worldwide food averages were up over 28% in 2010:
http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/FoodPricesIndex/en/

Crude oil prices continue to hover near the $90 mark even though inventories are at a 20 year high:
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/gasoline-inventories-jump-20-year-high-gas-price-surges

The World Bank is now warning of possible disasters (which they helped create) in the wake of “dangerous price levels”:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/15/us-worldbank-food-idUSTRE71E5H720110215

Our government’s response? Complete denial that there is any significant threat of inflation. Denial that overprinting of the dollar and its subsequent devaluation has anything to do with rising prices. Scapegoating everything from weather, to speculators, to the fake “recovery” itself for price spikes. The longer they keep the terminology of inflation out of the mainstream, the less Americans are likely to prepare for an onslaught of the dollar.

Create Debt To Pay Off Debt: This is pretty self explanatory. If foreign investors want nothing to do with you, your explosive national debt, or your depreciating currency, where is your government going to get the money to continue spending like a drunken trophy wife at Macy’s? If you default, the jig is up, and no one will buy your recovery yarns. Instead, print even more fiat and use it to purchase your own Treasury bonds! This serves two purposes; first, it props up the federal bureaucracy which gives the impression of stability (at least for a time), and, it furthers your goal of squeezing the dollar like a grape.

Remove All Checks And Balances: If you plan on decimating an economy, you can’t very well have people pointing fingers at you while you do it. That would be inconvenient. It’s funny, but for years, ratings agencies like Moodys helped global banks facilitate the mortgage and derivatives crisis by categorizing worthless assets as AAA securities. Without them, no one would have invested in such garbage in the first place, and the banking fraud would have been immediately exposed. Now that ratings agencies are finally doing their job and downgrading the creditworthiness of banks and countries that possess extreme liabilities, the SEC is moving to marginalize them:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/09/us-financial-regulation-creditraters-idUSTRE7180OD20110209

Interesting that as the U.S. nears a possible credit downgrade, we suddenly no longer care what ratings agencies have to say.

The SEC in itself is one enormous joke, and in no way a practical overseer of banking activity. The organization has shown itself to be either fantastically incompetent, or deliberately indifferent to ongoing financial fraud. I never thought I would find myself agreeing with a cretin like Bernie Madoff, but according to the middle-weight Ponzi artist, global banks he dealt with, like JP Morgan and HSBC, had to be perfectly aware of the scam he was undertaking, otherwise, it could not have been possible:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/02/16/us-madoff-interview-idUSTRE71F0QD20110216

Likewise, the SEC’s complete lack of proper investigation into such activities turned Wall Street into a globalist playground where much bigger conmen than Madoff have nested and bred like fleas. It’s not that the system needs more regulation, or more legal wrangling; this would accomplish nothing, because the system is regulated by the criminals! Therefore, new laws can be enacted in concert, and the government can deem the system reformed and recovered, all while the underlying corruption remains untouched. If the poison that instigated the fall of the markets is not uprooted, treachery will continue to reign supreme, and healthy markets a childish illusion.

The Creeping Terror

Two years ago I was in my local Borders bookstore and noticed that they had downsized their stock selection by what looked to be nearly a third. I made a point to ask if this was a chain wide phenomenon. Most employees I talked with said yes. I then asked if they had begun cutting employee hours by significant margins and specifically laying off longtime workers that had built up substantial pay increases. Again, the consensus was yes. Finally, and most importantly, did Borders discuss these changes with their staff in a manner that was informative and open, or, was there a lot of confusion amongst employees as to what exactly was going on? The response was that they were overwhelmingly bewildered by Borders’ lack of clear communication as to the direction of the corporation.

My suggestion to them was to start looking for another job, because their company was about to declare bankruptcy. They, of course, denied this was remotely likely:
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704329104576138353865644420.html

It may sound like a stretch, but the reason I bring up Borders’ impending chapter 11 is because, to me, it represents a microcosm of the creeping nature of economic collapse, especially when that collapse is being wielded and delegated.

Borders has been on the verge of default for quite a while. Did they refuse to relay this information openly to their employees because they selfishly wanted to maintain profit margins just a little longer until they were ready to pull the plug? Of course! Do global bankers with aspirations of a centralized currency keep the true destabilization of the market spectrum and the coming international dollar dump to themselves because in the end they will benefit from our shock and awe? Of course!

Whether a person loses everything all at once, or a piece at a time, the end result is the same, however, there is something especially cruel in the idea of fiscal theater; the act of inspiring false hope that a financial environment is sound when it has, in truth, already suffocated. Why would our modern day robber barons put so much energy into constructing a fake recovery? There are many reasons, but first and foremost, to create apathy. To lure us towards inaction. To swindle us into assuming the storm will blow over, and all will return as it was. Unfortunately, recovery without intense restructuring of our economic system is impossible. The fundamentals do not support the suggestion in the slightest. The question is, who will be at the helm when the dust settles and this restructuring does eventually occur? Will the American people take the lead, as they should, and commit to a concrete free market rejuvenation of our financial environment? Or, will we sit back yet again, and let the banksters set us up for the next grand disaster?

Saturday, April 10, 2010

Let's Take a Look at Unemployment Numbers, Shall we?

To get to the bottom of the discrepancy between the govt's unemployment figures vs actual statistics for the number of people unemployed in this country, let's take a look at how the govt gets to their number of 10% (or thereabout).

True US unemployment rate

The unemployment rate was unchanged at 10.0 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment fell in construction, manufacturing, and wholesale trade, while temporary help services and health care added jobs.

This is the official line. Take at a look at some of the statistical manipulation needed to come up with a 10% headline unemployment number.

Civilian Labor Force

The civilian labor force participation rate fell to 64.6 percent. The employment-population ratio declined to 58.2 percent. (See table A-1.) The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to as involuntary part-time workers) was about unchanged at 9.2 million in December and has been relatively flat since March. These individuals were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job.

The civilian labor force participation rate continues on its remarkable and historic downward trajectory. In order to appreciate the significance of such a contraction, it is critical to understand what the civilian labor force participation rate represents.

The civilian labor force participation rate represents the percentage of eligible, working-age individuals actively seeking work- which means looking for work in the past 4 weeks. If you haven't looked for work in the past 4 weeks, you are no longer considered unemployed in the government's land of make-believe.

To get a sense of how bad the unemployment situation is in what the average person would call reality, and not the land of government statistical make-believe, curious minds will be asking why the civilian labor participation rate is declining at such a rapid pace. The answer lies in the protracted nature of the current economic downturn. From the BLS:

Among the unemployed, the number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) continued to trend up, reaching 6.1 million. 4 in 10 unemployed workers were jobless for 27 weeks or longer.


It's pretty clear that when 4 out of 10 individuals are unemployed for more than 6 months, we are talking about an environment where employers are simply not hiring. When employers stop hiring, people give up looking for work, which means they are no longer part of the civilian labor force. This individual is not considered by the government as unemployed, but as a 'marginally attached worker'.

About 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, an increase of 578,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.


Below is a graph of 'discouraged workers', a subset of marginally attached workers, which represents those who want work, but are not actively seeking work due to perceived weak economic conditions. I like to think of the 'discouraged worker' as an indicator of current hiring conditions. If employers are really hiring, the discouraged worker should disappear rather quickly; instead we are experiencing a continued and relentless upward trend in this category of worker.


True Unemployment Rate

The 2.8 million 'marginally attached' workers are in fact, unemployed. If we add the 2.8 million marginally attached workers to the labor force and consider them as unemployed, we get a 11.6% unemployment rate.

Now let's incorporate what we know about marginally attached workers and the civilian labor force to come to a truer unemployment rate. Let's assume for a second that the labor participation rate is at the 67% level we saw in the beginning of the decade and see the effect this has on the unemployment rate.

This will require some simple mathematics.

The current labor force is 236,933,000. An increase from the current 64.6% labor force participation rate to 67% would be met by an attendant rise in labor participants from 153,059,000 to 158,745,000. So about 5.7 million people would be added to the labor force. If we assume the labor force participation rate declined because of an increase in marginally attached workers (unemployed for less than 12 months) and other forgotten individuals (unemployed for more than 12 months), we come up with an effective unemployment rate of 13.2% .

So, the true unemployment rate -which is defined as ALL people who want work but just can't find it- probably lies somewhere between 11.6% and 13.2%. If you consider individuals working part-time for economic reasons as unemployed, you get an unemployment rate north of 17.4%.

In short, the unemployment situation is a lot worse than government statistics would suggest.

###

If something isn't done about unemployment soon--something that is meaningful and lasting--then when the commercial real estate crash hits, and/or the credit crash hits, we will reach a point we never even reached during the last great depression. We're at or past critical mass--meaning we are unprepared for what's coming. Everyone seems to be breathing a sigh of relief and believing the big network newsies blowing "recovery" up our skirts, as they proclaim lies to our faces while whispering truths to one another.