As noted previously, one key fly in the ointment in an otherwise better
than expected jobs report (in which the participation rate also trended
higher for a welcome change) was the manufacturing jobs data, which
declined by 13,000. Perhaps at the end of the day this is the most
important data point, since while declining government jobs at the end
of the day is a good thing, government workers don’t actually create
anything of value for the economy.
And as the chart below demonstrates,
the long term trend is certainly not our friend. The second “fly”, and
the one that will certainly be used as a talking point by politicians,
was the average unemployment duration. At 40.5 weeks, it just hit a new
all time record.
Unemployment Duration:
Manufacturing Jobs:
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