(Oh, but the stock market was doing so well, people saw it as a sure sign of recovery...there isn't going to be a recovery folks, not for a decade or longer. We are financially fucked for the foreseeable future--pardon my language, but dig the alliteration!.--jef)
By MARTIN CRUTSINGER - Aug 2, 2011
WASHINGTON (AP) - The stock market is on its longest losing streak since the financial meltdown of 2008, confronted almost every day by fresh evidence that the economy is in serious trouble again.
The Dow Jones industrials declined more than 265 points Wednesday, their worst day in more than two months, and closed below 12,000 for the first time since June 24.
Investors sold all day after a report that the economy, which is barely growing and straining to produce jobs, is getting almost no help from consumer spending. Americans saved more in June and spent less for the first time in almost two years.
The big declines in the stock market came despite the formal end of weeks of uncertainty over whether Congress would raise the federal government's borrowing limit.
President Barack Obama signed into a law a bill that raises the debt ceiling and promises more than $2 trillion in cuts to government spending over the next decade. The bill was passed by the House on Monday and by the Senate earlier Tuesday, 74-26.
But investors were more worried about the economy, and the sell-off only accelerated. It was the eighth consecutive daily drop for the Dow and seventh for the Standard & Poor's 500 index, in both cases the longest since October 2008.
During its eight-day decline, the Dow has lost 858 points, or 6.7 percent. The average closed at 11,866.62. The S&P 500 closed at 1,254.05, and is now down slightly for the year.
"The market is starting to wonder where the growth is going to come from," said Nick Kalivas, a vice president of financial research at MF Global. "It hasn't hit the panic button yet, but that's where we're drifting."
The spending decline in June came after a report last week that the economy grew at an annual rate of less than 1 percent in the first six months of the year - the slowest since the end of the Great Recession in June 2009.
Tuesday's report showed that by June, Americans had only grown more cautious. They are faced with high unemployment, stagnant pay, sliding home values and other challenges.
"With gasoline prices high, incomes not growing and the craziness in Washington creating uncertainty, is it any surprise that people stopped spending?" asked Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors.
The government said consumer spending dropped 0.2 percent in June. It was the first decline since September 2009. Consumer spending fuels about 70 percent of economic growth.
Part of the drop was because food and energy prices have declined a little after sharp increases earlier this year. Gasoline, for example, costs about $3.70 a gallon after the national average flirted with $4 earlier this year.
But Americans also cut back on major goods, such as cars, furniture and appliances. Those purchases help drive growth.
Incomes, which include Social Security checks and other government benefit payments, rose just 0.1 percent. That was the smallest gain since September. Wages and salaries fell.
People socked away more of their payments, perhaps because of increasing worries about the economy and job security. The personal savings rate rose to 5.4 percent of after-tax incomes, the highest since August 2010.
Automakers reported Tuesday that a lack of discounts and a continuing shortage of Japanese cars kept many buyers away and caused sales to sputter for a third straight month.
The only good news for the economy was that the government won't default on its debt. But even the debt could ultimately slow the economy.
The legislation Obama signed Tuesday didn't include an extension of a Social Security tax cut or long-term unemployment benefits. Both are set to expire by year's end. And the deal reduces government spending at a time when the economy is growing too slowly to keep the unemployment rate from rising.
For now, most of the spending cuts begin in 2014 or later, so the damage to the economy will be limited.
Obama has pledged to fight to extend the Social Security tax cut and emergency unemployment benefits. But in Washington's atmosphere of fiscal restraint, that may be difficult.
"We believe the economy will continue to struggle for some time, especially since there has been a move by the federal government toward fiscal consolidation," said Paul Dales, senior U.S. economist at Capital Economics.
The economy added just 18,000 jobs in June, the fewest in nine months, and the unemployment rate is 9.2%(U3) 16.2% (U6), the highest all year. The government will issue the July figures Friday.
The sour news on incomes, spending and auto sales followed a report earlier this week that manufacturing in July grew at its weakest pace in two years.
Dales said he doesn't foresee another recession but expects the economy to remain bumpy.
That's a fine line for most Americans. Many of them still feel as if the economy remains in recession. At the same time, corporations have continued to report strong earnings and amassed huge cash stockpiles.
"What worries me is that businesses are deriving their strong earnings growth through productivity gains, limited wage increases and foreign activities," Naroff said. "While that may be good for an individual firm, when most companies do that, income gains become so limited that spending and ultimately growth fades."
+++++++++
Stocks now down for year as economic concerns grow
By DAVID K. RANDALL - Aug 2, 2011
NEW YORK (AP) - A sell-off erased this year's gains in the stock market Tuesday as investors grew increasingly concerned about the economy.
The Standard & Poor's 500 - the benchmark for most U.S. mutual funds - lost 2.6 percent and fell to its lowest point of the year. It is down 0.3 percent for the year and is off nearly 8 percent since reaching a high for the year of 1,363 on April 29.
A series of weak economic reports and poor earnings reports from several big companies spurred the decline.
The Commerce Department reported that consumers cut their spending in June for the first time in nearly two years. Analysts had predicted a slight increase. Incomes also rose by the smallest amount since September, reflecting a weak job market.
The report came one day after a weak manufacturing report. And on Friday the government said that in the first half of the year, the economy grew at its slowest pace since the recession ended in June 2009.
"The market is starting to wonder where the growth is going to come from," said Nick Kalivas, a vice president of financial research at MF Global. "It hasn't hit the panic button yet, but that's where we're drifting."
The S&P 500 lost 32.89 points, or 2.6 percent, to 1,254.05. It has fallen for seven straight days, losing 6.8 percent in that time. That's the S&P's longest string of losses since the height of the financial crisis in October 2008.
The Dow Jones industrial average lost 265.87 points, or 2.2 percent, to 11,866.62. The Dow has lost 858 points, or 6.7 percent, in the last eight trading days.
The Nasdaq composite fell 75.37, or 2.7 percent, to 2,669.24. And the Russell 2000, an index of smaller companies that many investors look to as a sign of market optimism about growth, fell 3.3 percent. It is now down 2.2 percent for the year.
All 30 stocks in the Dow lost ground. General Electric Co. (GE), Pfizer Inc. (PFE) and Home Depot Inc. led the index lower with losses of 4 percent or more. All but 13 of the 500 companies in the S&P index fell.
Archer Daniels Midland Co. dropped 6 percent after the agricultural conglomerate said it missed Wall Street's profit forecasts. High-end retailer Coach Inc. lost nearly 7 percent after the company said margins declined, cutting into profits. A pullback in spending could threaten profits at the company; it is making less from each purchase because of higher costs.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell to a low for the year of 2.61 percent from 2.75 percent Monday. Yields fall when bond prices rise. Gold, another asset investors buy when they're worried about the direction of the economy, gained 1.4 percent to $1,645 an ounce.
Even with the current streak of losses, the S&P and Dow are near the same levels as they were at the end of June. But some investors say that there's a strong likelihood both indexes will decline further this year because the economy is not as strong as they thought it was in June. At that time, investors still believed the economy was growing at a quicker pace.
And last year when the economy slowed sharply, the Federal Reserve began a bond-buying stimulus program, known as quantitative easing. That was credited with helping the U.S. economy avoid another recession.
Now, the Fed has indicated it does not have plans to implement another round of stimulus. And the new focus on deficit reduction in Washington makes it even less likely that more help could come, analysts said.
"With this debt debate going on, there is not an expectation for more fiscal or monetary stimulus and that's a real concern," said Jim Peters, the head of Tactical Allocation Group, a money manager in Michigan with $1.5 billion under management.
The S&P index fell through its long-term moving average, a measure that technical traders look at to determine whether the market is moving up or down longer term. Many investors use these averages as a sign of when to sell while they can still take some profits.
"The market broke through some pretty critical support levels," said Richard Ross, the global technical strategist at Auerbach Grayson, and dampened market optimism. He said that investors will wait for the market to settle before they buy again.
The S&P, down 8 percent since reaching its highs for the year on April 29, is more than half of the way towards a 10 percent drop that signals a market correction. A drop of more than 20 percent would put an end to the bull market that started in March of 2009.
In 2008, the S&P had a much steeper decline. Over eight straight days of declines, the index lost 22.9 percent when it closed on Oct. 8, 2008. It fell even further over the next six months. Since March 2009, the S&P is up 85 percent, not including dividends.
The consumer spending pullback was the latest indication that the U.S. economy may be slowing. Many economists, including Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, have said the U.S. economy would gain momentum in the second half of the year as gas prices fall and Japan's factories recover from the earthquake disaster in March. Slow U.S. manufacturing growth, a weak job market and concerns about spending cuts in the debt deal have cast doubt on those predictions.
The growth of China's and India economies have also slowed recently after their respective central banks raised interest rates. American corporations have counted on increasing profits in China as a way to make up for slower revenue growth in the U.S. As a whole, companies in the S&P 500 index are expected to make nearly half of their profits overseas in 2011.
President Barack Obama signed a compromise bill Tuesday to raise the country's borrowing limit, hours ahead of a midnight deadline after which the U.S. government wouldn't have enough money to pay all its bills. The passage of the bill averted the possibility of a default on U.S. debt.
Four stocks fell for every one that rose on the New York Stock Exchange. Volume was higher than average at 5.3 billion shares.
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