Gulf spill 'bigger and uglier than we had hoped'

Some experts say troubled ecosystems are now being pushed to the brink
by David A. Fahrenthold | 7/5/2010

How dead is the Gulf of Mexico?

It is perhaps the most important question of the BP oil spill — but scientists don't appear close to answering it despite a historically vast effort.

In the 2 1/2 months since the spill began, the gulf has been examined by an armada of researchers — from federal agencies, universities and nonprofit groups. They have brought back vivid snapshots of a sea under stress: sharks and other deep-water fish suddenly appearing near shore, oil-soaked marshes turning deathly brown, clouds of oil swirling in deep water.

But, with key gaps remaining in their data, there is wide disagreement about the big picture. Some researchers have concluded that the gulf is being spared an ecological disaster. Others think ecosystems that were already in trouble before the spill are now being pushed toward a brink.

"The distribution of the oil, it's bigger and uglier than we had hoped," said Roger Helm, a U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service official and the lead scientist studying the spill for the Interior Department. "The possibility of having significant changes in the food chain, over some period of time, is very real. The possibility of marshes disappearing . . . is very real."

Helm said that his prognosis for the spill had worsened in the past week — as the amount of oily shoreline increased from Louisiana to Florida, despite cleanup efforts. "This just outstrips everybody's capability" to clean it up, he said.

This research has mainly occurred in the background, as public attention has focused on the "open-heart surgery" at BP's leaking wellhead.

The patient is a 600,000-square-mile sea, which contains swirling currents, sun-baked salt marshes and dark, cold canyons patrolled by sperm whales. Complicating matters is that even before the spill began in late April, the patient was already sick.

In recent years, Louisiana has been losing a football field's worth of its fertile marshes to erosion every 38 minutes. In the gulf itself, pollutants coming from the Mississippi's vast watershed helped feed a low-oxygen "dead zone" bigger than the entire Chesapeake Bay. Measuring the spill's damage, then, requires distinguishing it from the damage done by these other man-made problems.

So far, even the simplest-sounding attempts to measure the spill's impact have turned out to be complex.

Oil slicks approach the beach in Orange Beach, Ala., on Friday, July 2. Oil from the Deepwater Horizon incident is expected to come ashore there over the July 4th weekend. (Dave Martin / AP)

Kids play volleyball on an oil covered beach in Gulf Shores, Alabama, on Thursday, July 1. High waves and rough seas from Tropical Storm Alex have pushed more oil from the Deepwater Horizon Oil Spill on shore and have prevented clean up crews from working.  (Dan Anderson / EPA)

Tar balls wash up on the beach at Gulf State Park in Gulf Shores, Alabama, on June 30. High waves and rough seas from Hurricane Alex pushed more oil on shore and prevented cleanup crews from working. (Dan Anderson / EPA)

Surfer watches an oily wave approach as he waits to catch a ride in Destin, Florida, on June 28. Tourism on the Gulf Coast has plummeted, with some hotels and condominium owners saying their business is down by 50 percent. (D. Martin / AP)

Workers move absorbent material to try to capture some of the oil washing onto Fourchon Beach from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill on June 28 in Port Fourchon, La. (Joe Raedle / Getty Images)

This image from video provided by BP on June 28 shows oil leaking from the broken wellhead. (BP via AP)

A man walks on the beach where oil is seen in the water as it washes ashore in Orange Beach, Ala., from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico on June 26. (Joe Raedle / Getty Images) 

Plaquemines Parish Coastal Zone Director P.J. Hahn rescues a heavily oiled bird from the waters of Barataria Bay, La., on June 26. (Gerald Herbert / AP) 

Ships work to contain the oil spill near the site of the Deepwater Horizon accident in the Gulf of Mexico on June 24. (Daniel Beltra / Greenpeace via Reuters)

The wake of a ship is visible after it cut through the surface oil near the site of the Deepwater Horizon accident in the Gulf of Mexico on June 24. (Daniel Beltra / Greenpeace via Reuters)

A group of young brown pelicans wait in a holding pen to be cleaned by volunteers at the Fort Jackson International Bird Rescue Research Center in Buras, La., on June 20. (Daniel Beltra / Greenpeace via Reuters)

James McGee vacuums oil with a shopvac in Barataria Bay on the coast of Louisiana on June 20.  (Patrick Semansky / AP)

Thick crude oil from the BP spill is seen in Barataria Bay near Port Sulphur, La., on June 20. (Erik S. Lesser / EPA)

Controlled burn is carried out on June 19 near where two relief wells are being drilled to cap the spill. (B.Knapp / EPA)

A NASA satellite image taken June 18 shows oil from the spill. The oil appears as varying shades of white, as sunlight is reflected off its surface. (NASA via AP)