Sunday, July 11, 2010

Evidence Indicates Gulf of Mexico Oil Disaster Was Engineered And Prolonged By Design

(this could be a load of coincidences, but I don't believe in coincidences when it comes to corporate corruption--jef)

***

By Lee Rogers | 07-10-2010
The BP oil disaster in the Gulf of Mexico is obviously a situation of unprecedented proportions. Even worse is that there is a great deal of evidence to indicate that this event was an engineered conspiracy. Even if one is not convinced of a conspiracy it is at the very least obvious that the U.S. government and the corporate media are not giving the general public a full picture of what's going on.

First, a number of powerful players conveniently had the foresight to dump large numbers of BP shares prior to the event which began on April 20th 2010. This saved them from the substantial loss in value of BP shares that occurred after the event.

Goldman Sachs sold 44% of its shares in BP just prior to when this disaster began.

BP’s CEO Tony Hayward sold a large chunk of his BP sharesa few weeks before the spill.

Both Wachovia and UBS also sold a large block of their BP shares before the spill.

Second, Halliburton which had been responsible for servicing the oil rig involved in this disaster purchased Boots and Coots a company specializing in extinguishing oil well and oil rig fires just days prior to the incident. Halliburton was also involved in conducting a cementing operation on the oil rig just 20 hours before it went up in flames.BP would eventually hire Boots and Cootsto work with them on containing the oil spill.

Third, Peter Sutherland a member of organizations such as the Trilateral Commission and the Bilderberg Group has held high level positions at both Goldman Sachs and BP. It is highly probable that he played a role in Goldman Sachs decision to dump a large chunk of their BP shares prior to the disaster considering he has maintained an affiliation with both institutions. Conveniently the Trilateral Commission's web-site removed his bio page from their web site but it is still available via the Way Back Machine here. There it details his role at both BP and Goldman Sachs.

Fourth, this disaster is now conveniently providing the U.S. government and the various powers that be the excuse to revamp energy policy. In particular, it provides the pretext to push ahead draconian cap and trade and carbon tax initiatives.

Fifth, on the day of the explosion the Coast Guard initially reported that there was an explosion on the oil rig three hours before it went up in flames. They later retracted the statement claiming that this was due to a computer time-stamp problem and that such an explosion never took place. This is a fairly ridiculous notion considering that accountability of time is taken incredibly seriously in every branch of the U.S. military. It is unlikely that such a mistake was made and more likely that this was merely an attempt to retract truthful information that didn’t fit in with how they intended on framing the official story.

Sixth, all attempts to plug the oil gusher have thus far failed. This in of itself isn’t strange but what is strange is that the tactics used to plug the leak have basically been the same ones that failed to stop a much smaller oil leak that occurred in the Gulf of Mexico in 1979. Why would so-called industry experts use the same tactics that failed 31 years ago on a much larger oil gusher? It doesn’t make any sense unless the intention was to prolong the disaster. Surprisingly, MSNBC’s Rachel Maddow actually did a half-way decent job covering this aspect of the containment failures in one of her TV segments which can be viewed below.



vidlink

From a more esoteric perspective the 2009 film "Knowing" starring Nicolas Cage shows a TV news report of an oil rig on fire in the Gulf of Mexico that looks very similar to the real life event that occurred a few months ago.



vidlink

In the 1970s BP released a board game called "Offshore Oil Strike" which contained artwork and themes quite reminiscent of what we see unfolding with the current oil rig disaster today.

Many important historical events involving a significant amount of deaths have occurred on either April 19th or April 20th and more generally from April 19th till May 1st.  This has led many to believe that the priest class elite see this as an important period of time to stage events which are in actuality blood sacrifice rituals.  Officially, the oil rig explosion of April 20th 2010 resulted in the deaths of 11 people.  Other recent events that have occurred on either April 19th or April 20th include the Oklahoma City bombing in 1995, the slaughter of the Branch Davidians in Waco in 1993 and the Columbine school shooting incident in 1999.  On April 19th 1775 the first battles of the Revolutionary War at Lexington and Concord took place.  In recognition of these battles, this day is now observed in Massachusetts as Patriots Day and is officially observed on the third Monday of the month of April.  Even more interesting, is that the Virginia Tech Massacre which resulted in the death of 33 people including the shooter by way of suicide took place on April 16th 2007 which also happened to coincide with the date Massachusetts observed Patriots Day that year.  April 20th is even Adolf Hilter’s birthday.  April 20th is also the 110th day of the year and the 111th day on leap years which is a very interesting numerological connotation.

The bottom line is that the chances are very high that the BP oil disaster was an engineered event designed to push ahead cap and trade and other new sweeping regulatory reforms.  It allows companies like Halliburton and others to profit off of what will be a very expensive clean up.  All of the players that dumped BP stock before the disaster now have the opportunity to buy back into the stock at far cheaper prices.  We could even see higher oil and gasoline prices especially if the moratorium on oil drilling in the Gulf of Mexico implemented by the Obama administration remains in place.

Overall, if one looks at who gains from these events it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out who might have engineered them.  The same can be said about the this on-going disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.

How your Apple iPhone spies on you

Published on 07-10-2010

As the communications device grows in popularity, technology experts and US law enforcement agencies are devoting increasing efforts to understanding their potential for forensics investigators.

While police have tracked criminals by locating their position via conventional mobile phone towers, iPhones offer far more information, say experts.

"There are a lot of security issues in the design of the iPhone that lend themselves to retaining more personal information than any other device," said Jonathan Zdziarski, a former computer hacker who now teaches US law enforcers how to retrieve data from mobile phones.

"These devices organise people's lives and, if you're doing something criminal, something about it is going to go through that phone." Apple has sold more than 50 million iPhones since the product was launched in 2007.

Mr Zdziarski told The Daily Telegraph he suspected that security had been neglected on the iPhone as it had been intended as a consumer product rather than a business one like rivals such as the Blackberry.

An example was the iPhone's keyboard logging cache, which was designed to correct spelling but meant that an expert could retrieve anything typed on the keyboard over the past three to 12 months, he said.

In addition, every time an iPhone's internal mapping system is closed down, the device snaps a screenshot of the phone's last position and stores it.

Investigators could access "several hundred" such images from the iPhone and so establish its user's whereabouts at certain times, he said.

In a further design feature that can also help detectives, iPhone photos include so-called "geotags" so that, if posted online, they indicate precisely where a picture was taken and the serial number of the phone that took it.

"Very, very few people have any idea how to actually remove data from their phone," Sam Brothers, a mobile phone researcher for US Customs and Border Protection told the Detroit Free Press.

"It may look like everything's gone but for anybody who's got a clue, retrieving that information is easy."

Ten Ways We Are Being Tracked, Traced, and Databased

Published on 07-10-2010
The war on terror is a worldwide endeavor that has spurred massive investment into the global surveillance industry - which now seems to becoming a war on "liberty and privacy."  Given all of the new monitoring technology being implemented, the uproar over warrantless wiretaps now seems moot.  High-tech, first-world countries  are being tracked, traced, and databased, literally around every corner.  Governments, aided by private companies, are gathering a mountain of information on average citizens who so far seem willing to trade liberty for supposed security.  Here are just some of the ways the matrix of data is being collected:
  • Internet -- Internet browsers are recording your every move forming detailed cookies on your activities.  The NSA has been exposed as having cookies on their site that don't expire until 2035.  Major search engines know where you surfed last summer, and online purchases are databased, supposedly for advertising and customer service uses.  IP addresses are collected and even made public.  Controversial websites can be flagged internally by government sites, as well as re-routing all traffic to block sites the government wants to censor. It has now been fully admitted that social networks provide NO privacy to users while technologies advance for real-time social network monitoring.  The Cybersecurity Act attempts to legalize the collection and exploitation of your personal information.  Apple's iPhone also has browsing data recorded and stored.  All of this despite the overwhelming opposition to cybersurveillance by citizens.
  • RFID  -- Forget your credit cards which are meticulously tracked, or the membership cards for things so insignificant as movie rentals which require your SSN.  Everyone has Costco, CVS, grocery-chain cards, and a wallet or purse full of many more.  RFID  "proximity cards"  (www.alphacard.com/id-cards/multifunctional-plastic-cards.shtml)  take tracking to a new level in uses ranging from loyalty cards, student ID, physical access, and computer network access.  Latest developments include an RFID powder developed by Hitachi, for which the multitude of uses are endless -- perhaps including tracking hard currency so we can't even keep cash undetected. (Also see microchips below).
  • Traffic cameras -- License plate recognition has been used to remotely automate duties of the traffic police in the United States, but have been proven to have dual use in England such as to mark activists under the Terrorism Act.  Perhaps the most common use will be to raise money and shore up budget deficits via traffic violations, but uses may descend to such "Big Brother" tactics as monitors telling pedestrians not to litter.
  • Computer cameras and microphones -- The fact that laptops -- contributed by taxpayers -- spied on public school children (at home) is outrageous.  Years ago Google began officially to use computer "audio fingerprinting" for advertising uses.  They have admitted to working with the NSA, the premier surveillance network in the world.  Private communications companies already have been exposed routing communications to the NSA.  Now, keyword tools -- typed and spoken -- link to the global security matrix.
  • Public sound surveillance -- This technology has come a long way from only being able to detect gunshots in public areas, to now listening in to whispers for dangerous "keywords." This technology has been launched in Europe to "monitor conversations" to detect "verbal aggression" in public places.  Sound Intelligence is the manufacturer of technology to analyze speech, and their website touts how it can easily be integrated into other systems. 
  • Biometrics -- The most popular biometric authentication scheme employed for the last few years has been Iris Recognition. The main applications are entry control, ATMs and Government programs. Recently, network companies and governments have utilized biometric authentication including fingerprint analysis, iris recognition, voice recognition, or combinations of these for use in National identification cards.
  • Microchips -- Microsoft's HealthVault and VeriMed partnership is to create RFID implantable microchips.  Microchips for tracking our precious pets is becoming commonplace and serves to condition us to accept putting them in our children in the future.  The FDA has already approved this technology for humans and is marketing it as a medical miracle, again for our safety.
  • Facial recognition -- Anonymity in public is over.  Admittedly used at Obama's campaign events,sporting events, and most recently at the G8/G20 protests in Canada. This technology is also harvesting data from Facebook images and surely will be tied into the street "traffic" cameras.
All of this is leading to Predictive Behavior Technology -- It is not enough to have logged and charted where we have been; the surveillance state wants to know where we are going through psychological profiling.  It's been marketed for such uses as blocking hackers.  Things seem to have advanced to a point where a truly scientific Orwellian world is at hand.  It is estimated that computers know to a 93% accuracy where you will be, before you make your first move.   Nanotech is slated to play a big role in going even further as scientists are using nanoparticles to directly influence behavior and decision making.   

Many of us are asking:  What would someone do with all of this information to keep us tracked, traced, and databased?  It seems the designers have no regard for the right to privacy and desire to become the Controllers of us all.

46 US Warships Plus 7,000 US Marines On Route To Costa Rica?

Scott Oliver - July 10, 2010

On the 2nd July 2010 the Costa Rica Congress authorized the entry of 46 U.S. warships capable of carrying 200 helicopters and warplanes, plus 7,000 U.S. Marines "who may circulate the country in uniform without any restrictions" , plus submarine killer ships to the Costa Rican coast for "anti-narcotics operations and humanitarian missions' between 1st July 2010 until 31st December 2010.

With this kind of nation destroying firepower, it gives real meaning to the expression "war on drugs", but if this a real six month "war on drugs" we should expect to see some fantastic results, right?

Politicians representing the Acción Ciudadana (PAC), the Unidad Social Cristiana (PUSC) and the Frente Amplio (FA) political parties opposed the measure saying that the destructive force of the ships, helicopters and 7,000 US Marines is "disproportionate for the fight against drug trafficking."

On Sunday, the President of Costa Rica Laura Chinchilla said that the government does not intend to militarize the fight against drugs and the Minister of Public Security Jose Maria Tijerino stressed that this huge, powerful military force would be under the command of the US Coast Guard and not the US Navy.

Although I don't suppose the Costa Ricans, the drug traffickers or we expats will notice the difference...

A few of the thoughts that raced through my mind?

  1. To my knowledge at the present time, Costa Rica is not suffering from any "humanitarian" crisis.
  2. The article did not make it clear what sort of "humanitarian missions" might take place.
  3. The article did not mention where any "humanitarian mission" might take place.
  4. Based on the truly horrific, drug crime related slaughters we have witnessed in Mexico, wouldn't it be better conducting these kinds of heavy weapon "anti-narcotics pperations" in northern Mexico?
  5. With what is probably the world's worst environmental disaster going on right now in the Gulf of Mexico, surely it would be more appropriate to conduct "humanitarian missions" in the Gulf?
  6. Or, could these vital warships be fleeing from something far more dangerous that is about to happen in the Gulf of Mexico?
  7. The article did not make it clear whether these vessels would be patrolling off the Pacific or Atlantic coast but either way, is it possible they are on their way to Venezuela? Either as a show of force or something more serious?
  8. Does anyone know if any of these ships carry nuclear weapons?

Another politician Francisco Chacón defended the arrival of the US forces saying that "they would give humanitarian support, build schools and fight against drug traffickers."

If these 7,000 US Marines, 200 helicopters, warplanes and submarine killers are coming to Costa Rica to "give humanitarian support, build schools and fight against drug traffickers," perhaps we could ask them to repair the new highway to Caldera? With that kind of manpower they could have it finished in a week.

The Creativity Crisis

For the first time, research shows that American creativity is declining. What went wrong—and how we can fix it.
by Po Bronson and Ashley Merryman | July 10, 2010

Back in 1958, Ted Schwarzrock was an 8-year-old third grader when he became one of the “Torrance kids,” a group of nearly 400 Minneapolis children who completed a series of creativity tasks newly designed by professor E. Paul Torrance. Schwarzrock still vividly remembers the moment when a psychologist handed him a fire truck and asked, “How could you improve this toy to make it better and more fun to play with?” He recalls the psychologist being excited by his answers. In fact, the psychologist’s session notes indicate Schwarzrock rattled off 25 improvements, such as adding a removable ladder and springs to the wheels. That wasn’t the only time he impressed the scholars, who judged Schwarzrock to have “unusual visual perspective” and “an ability to synthesize diverse elements into meaningful products.”

The accepted definition of creativity is production of something original and useful, and that’s what’s reflected in the tests. There is never one right answer. To be creative requires divergent thinking (generating many unique ideas) and then convergent thinking (combining those ideas into the best result).

In the 50 years since Schwarzrock and the others took their tests, scholars—first led by Torrance, now his colleague, Garnet Millar—have been tracking the children, recording every patent earned, every business founded, every research paper published, and every grant awarded. They tallied the books, dances, radio shows, art exhibitions, software programs, advertising campaigns, hardware innovations, music compositions, public policies (written or implemented), leadership positions, invited lectures, and buildings designed.

Nobody would argue that Torrance’s tasks, which have become the gold standard in creativity assessment, measure creativity perfectly. What’s shocking is how incredibly well Torrance’s creativity index predicted those kids’ creative accomplishments as adults. Those who came up with more good ideas on Torrance’s tasks grew up to be entrepreneurs, inventors, college presidents, authors, doctors, diplomats, and software developers. Jonathan Plucker of Indiana University recently reanalyzed Torrance’s data. The correlation to lifetime creative accomplishment was more than three times stronger for childhood creativity than childhood IQ.

Like intelligence tests, Torrance’s test—a 90-minute series of discrete tasks, administered by a psychologist—has been taken by millions worldwide in 50 languages. Yet there is one crucial difference between IQ and CQ scores. With intelligence, there is a phenomenon called the Flynn effect—each generation, scores go up about 10 points. Enriched environments are making kids smarter. With creativity, a reverse trend has just been identified and is being reported for the first time here: American creativity scores are falling.

Kyung Hee Kim at the College of William & Mary discovered this in May, after analyzing almost 300,000 Torrance scores of children and adults. Kim found creativity scores had been steadily rising, just like IQ scores, until 1990. Since then, creativity scores have consistently inched downward. “It’s very clear, and the decrease is very significant,” Kim says. It is the scores of younger children in America—from kindergarten through sixth grade—for whom the decline is “most serious.”

The potential consequences are sweeping. The necessity of human ingenuity is undisputed. A recent IBM poll of 1,500 CEOs identified creativity as the No. 1 “leadership competency” of the future. Yet it’s not just about sustaining our nation’s economic growth. All around us are matters of national and international importance that are crying out for creative solutions, from saving the Gulf of Mexico to bringing peace to Afghanistan to delivering health care. Such solutions emerge from a healthy marketplace of ideas, sustained by a populace constantly contributing original ideas and receptive to the ideas of others.

It’s too early to determine conclusively why U.S. creativity scores are declining. One likely culprit is the number of hours kids now spend in front of the TV and playing videogames rather than engaging in creative activities. Another is the lack of creativity development in our schools. In effect, it’s left to the luck of the draw who becomes creative: there’s no concerted effort to nurture the creativity of all children.

Around the world, though, other countries are making creativity development a national priority. In 2008 British secondary-school curricula—from science to foreign language—was revamped to emphasize idea generation, and pilot programs have begun using Torrance’s test to assess their progress. The European Union designated 2009 as the European Year of Creativity and Innovation, holding conferences on the neuroscience of creativity, financing teacher training, and instituting problem-based learning programs—curricula driven by real-world inquiry—for both children and adults. In China there has been widespread education reform to extinguish the drill-and-kill teaching style. Instead, Chinese schools are also adopting a problem-based learning approach.

Plucker recently toured a number of such schools in Shanghai and Beijing. He was amazed by a boy who, for a class science project, rigged a tracking device for his moped with parts from a cell phone. When faculty of a major Chinese university asked Plucker to identify trends in American education, he described our focus on standardized curriculum, rote memorization, and nationalized testing. “After my answer was translated, they just started laughing out loud,” Plucker says. “They said, ‘You’re racing toward our old model. But we’re racing toward your model, as fast as we can.’ ”

Overwhelmed by curriculum standards, American teachers warn there’s no room in the day for a creativity class. Kids are fortunate if they get an art class once or twice a week. But to scientists, this is a non sequitur, borne out of what University of Georgia’s Mark Runco calls “art bias.” The age-old belief that the arts have a special claim to creativity is unfounded. When scholars gave creativity tasks to both engineering majors and music majors, their scores laid down on an identical spectrum, with the same high averages and standard deviations. Inside their brains, the same thing was happening—ideas were being generated and evaluated on the fly.

Researchers say creativity should be taken out of the art room and put into homeroom. The argument that we can’t teach creativity because kids already have too much to learn is a false trade-off. Creativity isn’t about freedom from concrete facts. Rather, fact-finding and deep research are vital stages in the creative process. Scholars argue that current curriculum standards can still be met, if taught in a different way.

To understand exactly what should be done requires first understanding the new story emerging from neuroscience. The lore of pop psychology is that creativity occurs on the right side of the brain. But we now know that if you tried to be creative using only the right side of your brain, it’d be like living with ideas perpetually at the tip of your tongue, just beyond reach.

When you try to solve a problem, you begin by concentrating on obvious facts and familiar solutions, to see if the answer lies there. This is a mostly left-brain stage of attack. If the answer doesn’t come, the right and left hemispheres of the brain activate together. Neural networks on the right side scan remote memories that could be vaguely relevant. A wide range of distant information that is normally tuned out becomes available to the left hemisphere, which searches for unseen patterns, alternative meanings, and high-level abstractions.

Having glimpsed such a connection, the left brain must quickly lock in on it before it escapes. The attention system must radically reverse gears, going from defocused attention to extremely focused attention. In a flash, the brain pulls together these disparate shreds of thought and binds them into a new single idea that enters consciousness. This is the “aha!” moment of insight, often followed by a spark of pleasure as the brain recognizes the novelty of what it’s come up with.

Now the brain must evaluate the idea it just generated. Is it worth pursuing? Creativity requires constant shifting, blender pulses of both divergent thinking and convergent thinking, to combine new information with old and forgotten ideas. Highly creative people are very good at marshaling their brains into bilateral mode, and the more creative they are, the more they dual-activate.

Is this learnable? Well, think of it like basketball. Being tall does help to be a pro basketball player, but the rest of us can still get quite good at the sport through practice. In the same way, there are certain innate features of the brain that make some people naturally prone to divergent thinking. But convergent thinking and focused attention are necessary, too, and those require different neural gifts. Crucially, rapidly shifting between these modes is a top-down function under your mental control. University of New Mexico neuroscientist Rex Jung has concluded that those who diligently practice creative activities learn to recruit their brains’ creative networks quicker and better. A lifetime of consistent habits gradually changes the neurological pattern.

A fine example of this emerged in January of this year, with release of a study by University of Western Ontario neuroscientist Daniel Ansari and Harvard’s Aaron Berkowitz, who studies music cognition. They put Dartmouth music majors and nonmusicians in an fMRI scanner, giving participants a one-handed fiber-optic keyboard to play melodies on. Sometimes melodies were rehearsed; other times they were creatively improvised. During improvisation, the highly trained music majors used their brains in a way the nonmusicians could not: they deactivated their right-temporoparietal junction. Normally, the r-TPJ reads incoming stimuli, sorting the stream for relevance. By turning that off, the musicians blocked out all distraction. They hit an extra gear of concentration, allowing them to work with the notes and create music spontaneously.

Charles Limb of Johns Hopkins has found a similar pattern with jazz musicians, and Austrian researchers observed it with professional dancers visualizing an improvised dance. Ansari and Berkowitz now believe the same is true for orators, comedians, and athletes improvising in games.

The good news is that creativity training that aligns with the new science works surprisingly well. The University of Oklahoma, the University of Georgia, and Taiwan’s National Chengchi University each independently conducted a large-scale analysis of such programs. All three teams of scholars concluded that creativity training can have a strong effect. “Creativity can be taught,” says James C. Kaufman, professor at California State University, San Bernardino.

What’s common about successful programs is they alternate maximum divergent thinking with bouts of intense convergent thinking, through several stages. Real improvement doesn’t happen in a weekend workshop. But when applied to the everyday process of work or school, brain function improves.

So what does this mean for America’s standards-obsessed schools? The key is in how kids work through the vast catalog of information. Consider the National Inventors Hall of Fame School, a new public middle school in Akron, Ohio. Mindful of Ohio’s curriculum requirements, the school’s teachers came up with a project for the fifth graders: figure out how to reduce the noise in the library. Its windows faced a public space and, even when closed, let through too much noise. The students had four weeks to design proposals.

Working in small teams, the fifth graders first engaged in what creativity theorist Donald Treffinger describes as fact-finding. How does sound travel through materials? What materials reduce noise the most? Then, problem-finding—anticipating all potential pitfalls so their designs are more likely to work. Next, idea-finding: generate as many ideas as possible. Drapes, plants, or large kites hung from the ceiling would all baffle sound. Or, instead of reducing the sound, maybe mask it by playing the sound of a gentle waterfall? A proposal for double-paned glass evolved into an idea to fill the space between panes with water. Next, solution-finding: which ideas were the most effective, cheapest, and aesthetically pleasing? Fiberglass absorbed sound the best but wouldn’t be safe. Would an aquarium with fish be easier than water-filled panes?

Then teams developed a plan of action. They built scale models and chose fabric samples. They realized they’d need to persuade a janitor to care for the plants and fish during vacation. Teams persuaded others to support them—sometimes so well, teams decided to combine projects. Finally, they presented designs to teachers, parents, and Jim West, inventor of the electric microphone.

Along the way, kids demonstrated the very definition of creativity: alternating between divergent and convergent thinking, they arrived at original and useful ideas. And they’d unwittingly mastered Ohio’s required fifth-grade curriculum—from understanding sound waves to per-unit cost calculations to the art of persuasive writing. “You never see our kids saying, ‘I’ll never use this so I don’t need to learn it,’ ” says school administrator Maryann Wolowiec. “Instead, kids ask, ‘Do we have to leave school now?’ ” Two weeks ago, when the school received its results on the state’s achievement test, principal Traci Buckner was moved to tears. The raw scores indicate that, in its first year, the school has already become one of the top three schools in Akron, despite having open enrollment by lottery and 42 percent of its students living in poverty.

With as much as three fourths of each day spent in project-based learning, principal Buckner and her team actually work through required curricula, carefully figuring out how kids can learn it through the steps of Treffinger’s Creative Problem-Solving method and other creativity pedagogies. “The creative problem-solving program has the highest success in increasing children’s creativity,” observed William & Mary’s Kim.

The home-game version of this means no longer encouraging kids to spring straight ahead to the right answer. When UGA’s Runco was driving through California one day with his family, his son asked why Sacramento was the state’s capital—why not San Francisco or Los Angeles? Runco turned the question back on him, encouraging him to come up with as many explanations as he could think of.

Preschool children, on average, ask their parents about 100 questions a day. Why, why, why—sometimes parents just wish it’d stop. Tragically, it does stop. By middle school they’ve pretty much stopped asking. It’s no coincidence that this same time is when student motivation and engagement plummet. They didn’t stop asking questions because they lost interest: it’s the other way around. They lost interest because they stopped asking questions.

Having studied the childhoods of highly creative people for decades, Claremont Graduate University’s Mihaly Csikszentmihalyi and University of Northern Iowa’s Gary G. Gute found highly creative adults tended to grow up in families embodying opposites. Parents encouraged uniqueness, yet provided stability. They were highly responsive to kids’ needs, yet challenged kids to develop skills. This resulted in a sort of adaptability: in times of anxiousness, clear rules could reduce chaos—yet when kids were bored, they could seek change, too. In the space between anxiety and boredom was where creativity flourished.

It’s also true that highly creative adults frequently grew up with hardship. Hardship by itself doesn’t lead to creativity, but it does force kids to become more flexible—and flexibility helps with creativity.

In early childhood, distinct types of free play are associated with high creativity. Preschoolers who spend more time in role-play (acting out characters) have higher measures of creativity: voicing someone else’s point of view helps develop their ability to analyze situations from different perspectives. When playing alone, highly creative first graders may act out strong negative emotions: they’ll be angry, hostile, anguished. The hypothesis is that play is a safe harbor to work through forbidden thoughts and emotions.

In middle childhood, kids sometimes create paracosms—fantasies of entire alternative worlds. Kids revisit their paracosms repeatedly, sometimes for months, and even create languages spoken there. This type of play peaks at age 9 or 10, and it’s a very strong sign of future creativity. A Michigan State University study of MacArthur “genius award” winners found a remarkably high rate of paracosm creation in their childhoods.

From fourth grade on, creativity no longer occurs in a vacuum; researching and studying become an integral part of coming up with useful solutions. But this transition isn’t easy. As school stuffs more complex information into their heads, kids get overloaded, and creativity suffers. When creative children have a supportive teacher—someone tolerant of unconventional answers, occasional disruptions, or detours of curiosity—they tend to excel. When they don’t, they tend to underperform and drop out of high school or don’t finish college at high rates.

They’re quitting because they’re discouraged and bored, not because they’re dark, depressed, anxious, or neurotic. It’s a myth that creative people have these traits. (Those traits actually shut down creativity; they make people less open to experience and less interested in novelty.) Rather, creative people, for the most part, exhibit active moods and positive affect. They’re not particularly happy—contentment is a kind of complacency creative people rarely have. But they’re engaged, motivated, and open to the world.

The new view is that creativity is part of normal brain function. Some scholars go further, arguing that lack of creativity—not having loads of it—is the real risk factor. In his research, Runco asks college students, “Think of all the things that could interfere with graduating from college.” Then he instructs them to pick one of those items and to come up with as many solutions for that problem as possible. This is a classic divergent-convergent creativity challenge. A subset of respondents, like the proverbial Murphy, quickly list every imaginable way things can go wrong. But they demonstrate a complete lack of flexibility in finding creative solutions. It’s this inability to conceive of alternative approaches that leads to despair. Runco’s two questions predict suicide ideation—even when controlling for preexisting levels of depression and anxiety.

In Runco’s subsequent research, those who do better in both problem-finding and problem-solving have better relationships. They are more able to handle stress and overcome the bumps life throws in their way. A similar study of 1,500 middle schoolers found that those high in creative self-efficacy had more confidence about their future and ability to succeed. They were sure that their ability to come up with alternatives would aid them, no matter what problems would arise.

When he was 30 years old, Ted Schwarzrock was looking for an alternative. He was hardly on track to becoming the prototype of Torrance’s longitudinal study. He wasn’t artistic when young, and his family didn’t recognize his creativity or nurture it. The son of a dentist and a speech pathologist, he had been pushed into medical school, where he felt stifled and commonly had run-ins with professors and bosses. But eventually, he found a way to combine his creativity and medical expertise: inventing new medical technologies.

Today, Schwarzrock is independently wealthy—he founded and sold three medical-products companies and was a partner in three more. His innovations in health care have been wide ranging, from a portable respiratory oxygen device to skin-absorbing anti-inflammatories to insights into how bacteria become antibiotic-resistant. His latest project could bring down the cost of spine-surgery implants 50 percent. “As a child, I never had an identity as a ‘creative person,’ ” Schwarzrock recalls. “But now that I know, it helps explain a lot of what I felt and went through.”

Creativity has always been prized in American society, but it’s never really been understood. While our creativity scores decline unchecked, the current national strategy for creativity consists of little more than praying for a Greek muse to drop by our houses. The problems we face now, and in the future, simply demand that we do more than just hope for inspiration to strike. Fortunately, the science can help: we know the steps to lead that elusive muse right to our doors.

Senate bill would make airport body scanners mandatory

By Daniel Tencer | Saturday, July 10th, 2010


A bipartisan bill introduced in the Senate requiring all airports to use full-body scanners lacks sufficient privacy safeguards, says a prominent watchdog group.

The Electronic Privacy Information Center says the bill, introduced in the Senate by Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN), "contains particularly weak privacy provision[s] that ignore many of the problems with the devices already uncovered."

The bill (PDF), known as the Securing Aircraft From Explosives Responsibly: Advanced Imaging Recognition ("SAFER AIR") Act, would require all commercial airports in the US to use full-body scanners as their primary screening method by no later than 2013. The bill is a response to criticism among some lawmakers that the DHS has been dragging its feet on implementing the technology.

Full-body scanners have been in testing at some airports in the US for several years, and the Department of Homeland Security ramped up expansion of the screening program after the Christmas Day bombing attempt. Some 48 airports have installed the machines so far, and the DHS has purchased 450 of them.

The bill includes clauses designed to protect passengers' privacy, such as a requirement that the images the scanners create "cannot be stored, transferred, copied or printed." It also forbids security personnel from having cameras near the machinery.

Those clauses are designed to allay the fears of privacy advocates, who worry that images taken by the machines could be used to humiliate travelers or even create child pornography.

However, the bill's privacy measures appear to be little different from the policy already set out by the Department of Homeland Security, which states that body-scanner technology is used in such a way that it "cannot store, print, transmit or save the image."

But, as RAW STORY reported earlier this year, the machines being installed at airports have a setting that allows them to store and transmit the images, and the Senate bill includes no provisions excluding minors from being scanned.

There have been several high-profile cases of screening technology being abused. In one heavily-publicized incident, a TSA worker in Miami who was scanned as part of a training session allegedly assaulted a co-worker who had mocked the size of his genitals.

In another incident, a British airport security worker was reprimanded after making comments about a co-worker's breasts after a screening.

The Electronic Privacy Information Center has filed a lawsuit against DHS asking for program to be suspended "pending an independent review."

But Sens. Bennett and Klobuchar insist there is "no excuse" not to implement the technology.

“As the threats against our nation’s air transportation networks continue to evolve, the screening technologies we rely on to identify and counter these threats must evolve as well,” Klobuchar said in a press release. “With so much at stake, we need to make sure we are using the best security tools and that all security forces are working together to stop potential threats before they get off the ground.”

“Magnetometers are not enough in this post 9/11 world, where threats have increased but screening technology has largely remained the same," Bennett said. "With much more advanced technology on the market, there is absolutely no excuse for the delayed implementation."

Wall St. Hiring in Anticipation of an Financial Sector Recovery

(Oh good! The financial sector is recovering while the whole rest of the US economy is in the toilet--hell, it's past the toilet and well into the sewer. They prosper while we suffer--it's like a fairy tale!--jef)

***

By NELSON D. SCHWARTZ | July 10, 2010

While much of the country remains fixated on the bleak employment picture, hiring is beginning to pick up in the place that led the economy into recession — Wall Street.

The shift underscores the remarkable recovery of the biggest banks and brokerage firms since Washington rescued them in the fall of 2008, and follows the huge rebound in profits for members of the New York Stock Exchange, which totaled $61.4 billion in 2009, the most ever. Since employment bottomed out in February, New York securities firms have added nearly 2,000 jobs, a trend that is also playing out nationwide at financial companies, commodity contract traders and investment firms.

Though the figures are small in comparison to overall Wall Street employment, executives, economists and headhunters say they expect the growth to pick up steam in the coming months.

“I think we’re seeing some hiring in anticipation of better times,” said Rae Rosen, a regional economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. “Wall Street typically hires in anticipation of the recovery, and there is a sense that the economy has bottomed out and is slowly improving.”

The increase in hiring and cautious optimism stand in sharp contrast to the mood among workers in other fields, where jobs have been slow to return or are disappearing altogether. Since June 2008 the number of jobs has shrunk by nearly 14 percent in manufacturing and by 22 percent in construction, but only by 8.5 percent in the financial industry nationwide.

It is also the opposite of what is going in other highly paid, white-collar professions like law, where employment nationwide in June was the lowest since late 2001, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The financial work force in New York has shrunk by more than 28,000 since its peak in January 2008, but is still slightly above its level in 2003 after the tech bubble burst, meaning it actually weathered this recession — the worst since the Depression — better than the previous one. Nationally, staffing is back to where it was in late 2005, while employment in the overall economy is near 2004 levels.

As hiring has picked up on Wall Street, salary packages recalling the boom years are reappearing at the most senior levels. Richard Stein, president of Global Sage, an executive search firm, said corporate clients had offered compensation packages worth more than $1 million annually to 12 candidates in recent weeks.

“The offers are not near where they were in 2006, but there is still a war for talent,” he said. “Everyone thought the ice age had returned, but the thaw has come and we’re in catch-up mode.”

For the local economy, Wall Street’s rebound is a rare bit of good news. New York City is cutting services like day care and adult literacy programs to help balance its budget, while Albany is facing a $9.2 billion deficit in the state budget this year.

“These are jobs that bring a lot of money into the city and have an impact that is out of proportion to their number,” said Carl Weisbrod, former president of the Alliance for Downtown New York and the president of Trinity Real Estate.

That has a critical effect on city and state finances, driving both tax revenue and job creation. Each job in the securities sector generates two additional positions in New York City, according to the federal Bureau of Economic Analysis. In part, that is because the average salary is much larger, with Wall Street employees earning an average of $392,000, compared with $63,875 for other workers in the city.

“It’s a big deal for both the city and the state,” said Robert D. Yaro, president of the Regional Plan Association, a leading independent planning group. “This is a significant turnaround.” Twenty percent of the state’s tax revenue comes from the financial sector, he said, while Wall Street accounts for about 12 percent of the city’s budget.

The hiring is not just a local phenomenon. Major investment banks are quietly rebuilding their global work forces.

Goldman Sachs added 600 jobs worldwide in the first quarter, while JPMorgan’s investment bank has hired slightly more than 2,000 people globally since the beginning of the year.

Closer to home, Credit Suisse’s investment bank, based in New York, filled 600 positions in the first quarter, with a significant portion in New York. Deutsche Bank has hired 414 people in New York, including 98 directors and managing directors since the start of the year.

Hiring is also picking up at boutique firms and at smaller foreign banks seeking a beachhead in New York.

Nomura of Japan has been especially aggressive, recently hiring several top bankers from Deutsche Bank. Nomura’s New York-based securities unit has increased its staff to more than 1,700, from 1,000 in March 2009, and the bank says it will hire 300 more workers by March 2011.

Macquarie, an Australian investment bank, has also rapidly expanded, even taking over new floors in its Midtown Manhattan headquarters to accommodate new trading operations. One morning last week, long rows of traders there worked the phones and watched a multitude of screens, evoking the heady days before the Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers downfalls.

“We are very bullish on the U.S.,” said Tim Bishop, who leads Macquarie’s United States operations.

On Thursday, Macquarie added six fixed-income traders in New York, and it plans to announce the hiring of six equity traders on Monday.

At Centerview Partners, a boutique investment bank that specializes in corporate advisory work, 10 bankers have joined the firm in New York this year, bringing its roster to 75. “I think hiring has turned the corner,” said Blair W. Effron, a former UBS vice chairman who was a founder of Centerview in 2006.

To be sure, Wall Street has long been the quintessential boom-and-bust industry, hiring rapidly on the way up and shrinking even more quickly on the way down.

Employment in the securities industry in New York was at 160,400 in May, up from the trough of 158,500 in February, but still well below its peak of 188,900 in January 2008, according to data prepared by the state comptroller’s office.

As the nascent increase in jobs suggests, the recovery is still very fragile. And executives say it could halt or even reverse if earnings reports for the second quarter, which begin this week, are disappointing.

As a result, some banks are hiring in stages, with one eye on the economy. In recent months, Morgan Stanley has hired 100 private bankers in the United States to serve wealthy clients but is holding off on plans to hire 400 more, waiting to see how the market performs.

Still, top banks and brokerages remain well aware of their reputation for taking reckless risks in the pursuit of profits, and they insist they are not simply reanimating the trading desks and other brash operations that caused the problem in the first place.

Of 400 recent hires in the sales and trading unit at Morgan Stanley, for example, the bank says only 100 are traders.

For all the criticism of Wall Street’s recent excesses, the industry remains New York’s growth engine.

“We’ve thought several times in recent decades that Wall Street was doomed and the city would go into decline,” said Kenneth T. Jackson, a professor at Columbia University and an expert on New York history. “The stock exchange goes back more than 200 years and has had lots of ups and downs, but like the city, it’s very resilient.”

BP removes cap from Gulf oil gusher, hopes to resume collection in 4-7 days

By Agence France-Presse | Saturday, July 10th, 2010

Workers began Saturday directing underwater robots to replace the cap on a gushing well in the Gulf of Mexico, in a bid to finally contain the devastating oil flow.

Live video feed of the spill site showed remotely-controlled submarines maneuvering the cap system in order to remove the old containment cap and place a tighter one.

If all works as planned, the new cap combined with a series of tankers that on the surface could contain all the oil now soiling the Gulf's fragile coastlines as early as Monday.

But the new system, expected to take four to seven days to be operational, is only a temporary solution before relief wells are completed that could stop the flow completely -- and comes after repeated failures and setbacks for BP as it wrangles with the worstenvironmental disaster in US history.

Once the old cap is removed, oil will flow unabated into the Gulf waters for some 48 hours, and the new system's success is anything but guaranteed.

"This new sealing cap has not been deployed at these depths or under these conditions, and there can be no assurance that the sealing cap will be successfully installed or installed within the anticipated timeframe," BP warned in a statement.

BP senior vice president Kent Wells said other options remained at the ready, including a new "top hat" containment system, if necessary.

"We always have backups for our backups," he told reporters, noting that workers were also ramping up skimming activity to collect as much oil as spill site during recapping period.

Engineers nearly a mile (1,600 meters) above on the surface were manipulating the undersea robots, rushing to take advantage of about a week of expected favorable weather conditions in the spill area for the new operation.

The existing cap, which sucks up to 25,000 barrels (one million gallons) of oil a day, was installed over a month ago but it allowed some of the hydrocarbons to escape because it was loosely fitted over a jagged cut of the well pipe.

BP is also working to connect the Helix Producer containment ship to another portion of the blown-out well. The ship should be up and running by Sunday, officials said.

Government estimates for the disastrous spill unleashed when the BP-leased Deepwater Horizon rig sank nearly three months ago, range between 35,000 to 60,000 barrels of oil (1.5 million to 2.5 million gallons) spewing into Gulf waters each day, based on interpretation of a live video feed of the leak.

The new cap and containment ship will raise containment capacity to 60,000 to 80,000 barrels (2.5 million to 3.4 million gallons) a day -- in effect halting spill that has imperiled wildlife and people's livelihoods across the Gulf Coast, according to officials.

An estimated 2.9 to 4.9 million barrels of oil have gushed into the Gulf waters since the spill began, and on day 82 of the spill, only 755,900 barrels have been recovered.

The government's pointman on the spill, Coast Guard Admiral Thad Allen, said on Friday he had approved the latest plans because they will provide for "far greater" containment capacity than current systems.

But no permanent solution is expected until the first of two relief wells is completed in order to inject drilling fluids into the gushing well and then seal it for good with cement.

The first relief well is expected to intersect the busted well by the end of July but it will take days or weeks -- until about mid-August -- to plug the leak, Wells said.

BP's backup plans include stationing nearly 400 boats between the Deepwater Horizon site and the Gulf Coast and more than 50 aircraft to spot and scoop up the additional oil that would flow into the Gulf.

In Pass Christian, Mississippi, cleanup crews in yellow reflective vests fanned out across the white sand beach, scooping tar balls from the water's edge with shovels and rakes under a punishing sun.

"It's a travesty," said Michael Howson, 48, who left his home in Chicago six weeks ago to work as a safety supervisor with the crew.

He's seen dead porpoises, turtles, pelicans, crabs, sea turtles and patches of oil as big as a car wash up on the beach.

"It's terrible they haven't been able to cap it yet," he told AFP. "It's destroying the beaches, it's destroying the wildlife and it's destroying the people."

Oil has now washed up on beaches in all five Gulf states -- Texas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida -- forcing the closure of fishing grounds and threatening scores of coastal communities with financial ruin.

Gen. Casey: America may be in Iraq and Afghanistan for another decade

July 10th, 2010 | Eric Kuhn

Aspen, Colorado (CNN) - The United States may still be in the Afghanistan and Iraq region for another ten years, according to Gen. George Casey.

“The types of conflict that we are fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan, and I think are likely to be fighting here for a decade or so, are focused on the people,” Casey, the army's Chief of Staff, said Friday night at the Aspen Institute's Ideas Festival.

“We are not going to succeed in either place by military means alone. You are only going to succeed when the people perceive there is a government represented by their interests, when there is an economy that can give them a job to support their families, when there are educational systems that can educate their family. All those things are essential to the long term success of the military operation.”


Regarding the larger war against “a global extremist network,” Casey also said America has another "decade or so of persistent conflict."

“States, non-states and individual actors who are increasingly willing to use violence” are not going away in the short-term. Casey added, “We believe this is a long term ideological struggle.”

Casey also joked by quoting Yogi Berra: “Predictions are hard, especially when you are looking at the future.”

Earlier this week in Aspen, the United Arab Emirates Ambassador to the U.S., Yousef al-Otaiba, stated he thought the United States should use force to stop Iran's nuclear program if sanctions did not work.

Casey responded by saying "There are no good solutions and the solution may be worse than the cure."

The four-star general, who has served in the army for over 40 years and will be leaving his post in nine months, stressed the importance of the long term health of the soldiers. The army has been aggressively studying post traumatic stress and suicide rates. It is also trying to give soldiers two years to recover after one year deployment.

"It's all about the people," Casey said referring to the strength of the American army.

In a statement to CNN, Casey's media advisor, LTC Rich Spiegel, said, "General Casey was speaking of the types of conflict we will be fighting for a decade or so. He did not, nor did he intend to, imply that we would be fighting in Iraq or Afghanistan for 10 more years."

More and more Americans preparing for social unrest

By Agence France-Presse | Saturday, July 10th, 201

From the outside, Jerry Erwin's home in the northwestern US state of Oregon is a nondescript house with a manicured front lawn and little to differentiate it from those of his neighbors.

But tucked away out of sight in his backyard are the signs of his preparations for doomsday, a catastrophic societal collapse that Erwin, 45, now believes is likely within his lifetime.

"I've got, under an awning, stacks of firewood, rain catching in barrels, I've got a shed with barbed concertina wire, like the military uses," he told AFP.

He and his wife also have also stockpiled thousands of rounds of ammunition and enough food for about six months.

"Several years ago I worked on paying off the house, replacing all the windows, and just very recently, I'm proud to say, we've replaced all our exterior doors with more energy-efficient ones, with as much built-in security features as I could get," he told AFP.

"Plus I'm going to be adding some more structural improvements to the door frames to make it hopefully virtually impossible to take a battering ram to them."

Erwin and others like him in the United States and elsewhere see political upheaval and natural disasters as clear signs that civilization is doomed.

"We're hitting on all cylinders as far as symptoms that have led other great powers to decline or collapse: resource depletion, damage to the environment, climate change, those are the same things that affected other great societies," he said.

For Erwin, the decline is irreversible and the best approach is to prepare for the inevitable.

His pessimism is shared by a wide range of people, from left-wing environmentalists who believe climate change and capitalist greed will doom human society to Christian fundamentalists who think sin will do the same.

They label themselves "preppers," "doomers," and "survivalists," and take a variety of different approaches to the same question: How best to prepare for the coming apocalypse?

Jim Rawles, who Erwin describes as "the patron saint of survivalism," prefers an isolationist, Christian-influenced approach.

He homeschooled his children, declines to say where he lives, and advises readers of his website survivalblog.com to "relocate to a safe area and live there year-round."

"When planning your retreat house, think: medieval castle," he adds, extolling the benefits of using sandbags to protect any new home.

Rawles, like many on the most conservative end of the survivalist spectrum, is also anti-tax, pro-gun rights, and suspicious of anything that smacks of socialism.

But the survivalist movement also includes left-wing community activists, who are devoted to living off the land and have never fired a weapon, and people like Chris Martenson, who quit a job with a six-figure salary that he felt was "an unnecessary diversion from the real tasks at hand."

He began growing his own food and developed a "Crash Course" that urges people to better prepare for societal instability. He also took over management of his investments and boasts of a 166 percent return on his portfolio.

For Martenson, the wake-up call was the September 11, 2001 attacks, when he felt gripped by uncertainty and totally unprepared.

Erwin had always felt that society would eventually disintegrate, but he and many other US survivalists say the dysfunctional response to the 2005 Hurricane Katrina was what spurred them to action.

"I thought, okay, things are not going to get better... maybe this society, our civilization, the American empire, will collapse during my lifetime," Erwin said.

For John Milandred, no single event pushed him to leave his suburban home and set up a farm in Oklahoma.

"We just got fed up of working all the time to pay bills and not accomplishing anything," he said.

A member of the American Preppers Network, Milandred said he and his wife aspired to "grow our own foods and be self sufficient... to live like the pioneers, like our great-grandparents."

It is unclear how many people subscribe to the lifestyle, but there are hundreds of websites devoted to the movement, and Erwin's surburban-self-reliance.com attracts visitors from around the world.

The global financial crisis has increased interest in survivalism "bigtime," Erwin said, but he feels sorry for latecomers to the movement.

"We'll help them if we can," he said. "But a lot of people are climbing on board at the last minute and its going to be hard for them."

Disaster Capitalism Hits Europe (and the US is Next)

Eurozone governments and European authorities are using the economy to justify pushing through rightwing policy changes
Friday, July 9, 2010 by Mark Weisbrot | The Guardian/UK

One thing should be made clear about the situation in the eurozone economies that is not clear at all if we rely on most of the news reports. This is not a situation where countries face a "dilemma" because they have overspent and piled up too much public debt. They do not face "tough choices" that will force them to cut spending and raise taxes while the economy is weak or in recession, in order to "satisfy financial markets".

What is really going on is that powerful interests within these countries - including Spain, Greece, Ireland and Portugal - are taking advantage of the situation to make the changes that they want. Perhaps even more importantly, the European authorities - including the European commission, the European central bank and the IMF - who are holding the purse strings of any bailout funds, are even more committed than the national governments to rightwing policy changes. And they are further removed from any accountability to any electorate.

In 13 Bankers, by Simon Johnson (a former chief economist at the IMF) and James Kwak, the authors describe the emerging market crises of the 1990s and note that Washington used them to promote changes that it wanted: "When an existing economic elite has led a country into a deep crisis, it is time for a change. And the crisis itself presents a unique, but short-lived opportunity for change." Naomi Klein, author of The Shock Doctrine, provides an excellent history of how crises have been used to introduce or consolidate regressive and unpopular economic "reforms".

This is what is happening in the eurozone economies right now, although the "crisis" is considerably exaggerated in most of them. Spain is a good example. The story that Spain got into a mess because of government overspending is not supported by the data. Spain reduced its gross debt-to-GDP ratio sharply as the economy grew from 2000-2007, from 59 to 36% of GDP, and was running budget surpluses in the three years prior to the 2008 crash. The crash was triggered by the collapse of a large housing bubble in Spain, as well as the bursting of a big stock market bubble: the value of stocks plunged from 125% of GDP in November 2007 to 54% of GDP a year later. The collapse of each of these bubbles had a huge impact in reducing private spending. The world recession added more external shocks to the Spanish economy.

Spain now has just €61bn of debt coming due this year; the European authorities could cover this very easily if they wanted to avoid the potential for rising interest rates on Spain's debt. Without a sharp rise in interest rates, Spain's debt is quite manageable, since they started with a net debt of just 45.8% of GDP in 2009, and interest payments of just 1.8% of GDP. (Most news reports use the country's gross debt, but net debt is a better measure. The gross debt includes debt that is held by the government itself, so the interest payments on this debt accrue to the government and therefore do not add to the country's debt burden.)

Of course, Spain is running a large central government budget deficit of about 9% of GDP this year, and this cannot go on indefinitely. But it won't: the deficit will mostly shrink through the reverse process of how it got there: as the economy grows, tax revenues will rise, spending on "automatic stabilisers" such as unemployment compensation will decrease, and the debt will fall relative to the economy, which is what matters. It makes no sense to cut spending and raise taxes now, while the economy is still very weak, inflation is negative and there is serious risk of lapsing back into recession.

Unless the goal is to reduce wages and benefits in the public sector, weaken labour, redistribute income upward and reduce the size of government, then there is no time like the present to push these things through. We have a similar, although not yet as severe political problem, in the United States: deficit hawks are mounting a campaign to cut social security, even though it can make all promised payments for the next 33 years.

Ironically, the people who want to take advantage of the "crisis" in Spain are actually increasing the risk of more serious debt problems, since the debt burden will rise if the economy lapses into recession or years of stagnation because of their fiscal tightening measures. But they are willing to take these risks in order to accomplish their political objectives.

Stirrings of a New Push for Military Option on Iran

Saturday, July 10, 2010 | Inter Press Service
by Jim Lobe

WASHINGTON - "From a marketing point of view, you don't introduce new products in August," explained then-White House Chief of Staff Andrew Card back in September 2002, in answer to queries about why the administration of George W. Bush had not launched its campaign to rally public opinion behind invading Iraq earlier in the summer.

And while it's only July - and less than a month after the U.N., the European Union (EU) and the U.S. Congress approved new economic sanctions against Iran - a familiar clutch of Iraq war hawks appear to be preparing the ground for a major new campaign to rally public opinion behind military action against the Islamic Republic.

Barring an unexpected breakthrough on the diplomatic front, that campaign, like the one eight years ago, is likely to move into high gear this autumn, beginning shortly after the Labor Day holiday, Sept. 6, that marks the end of summer vacation.

By the following week, the November mid-term election campaign will be in full swing, and Republican candidates are expected to make the charge that Democrats and President Barack Obama are "soft on Iran" their top foreign policy issue.

In any event, veterans of the Bush administration's pre-Iraq invasion propaganda offensive are clearly mobilizing their arguments for a similar effort on Iran, even suggesting that the timetable between campaign launch and possible military action - a mere six months in Iraq's case - could be appropriate.

"By the first quarter of 2011, we will know whether sanctions are proving effective," wrote Bush's former national security adviser, Stephen Hadley, and Israeli Brig. Gen. Michael Herzog in a paper published last week by the Washington Institute for Near Policy (WINEP), a think tank closely tied to the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC).

"(T)he administration should begin to plan now for a course of action should sanctions be deemed ineffective by the first or second quarter of next year. The military option must be kept on the table both as a means of strengthening diplomacy and as a worst-case scenario," they asserted.

While Hadley and Herzog argued that the administration should begin planning military options now - presumably to be ready for possible action as early as next spring - others are calling for more urgent and demonstrative preparations.

''We cannot afford to wait indefinitely to determine the effectiveness of diplomacy and sanctions," wrote former Democratic Sen. Charles Robb and Air Force Gen. Charles Wald (ret.) in a column published in Friday's Washington Post in which they warned that Tehran "could achieve nuclear weapons capability before the end of this year, posing a strategically untenable threat to the United States".

"If diplomatic and economic pressures do not compel Iran to terminate its nuclear program, the U.S. military has the capability and is prepared to launch an effective, targeted strike on Tehran's nuclear and military facilities," they wrote.

Their column was based on the latest of three reports promoting the use of military pressure on Iran released by the Bipartisan Policy Center (BPC) since 2008 and overseen by BPC's neo-conservative foreign policy director, Michael Makovsky.

Makovsky, whose brother is a senior official at WINEP, served as a consultant to the controversial Pentagon office set up in the run-up to the Iraq War to find evidence of operational ties between al Qaeda and Saddam Hussein as a justification for the invasion.

The BPC report, "Meeting the Challenge: When Time Runs Out", urged the Obama administration, among other immediate steps, to "augment the Fifth Fleet presence in the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman, including the deployment of an additional (aircraft) carrier battle group and minesweepers to the waters off Iran; conduct broad exercises with its allies in the Persian Gulf; ...initiate a 'strategic partnership' with Azerbaijan to enhance regional access..." as a way of demonstrating Washington's readiness to go to war.

"If such pressure fails to persuade Iran's leadership, the United States and its allies would have no choice but to consider blockading refined petroleum imports into Iran," it went on, noting that such a step would "effectively be an act of war and the U.S. and its allies would have to prepare for its consequences".

Of course, some Iraq hawks, most aggressively Bush's former U.N. ambassador John Bolton, have insisted that neither diplomacy nor sanctions, no matter how tough, would be sufficient to dissuade Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapons and that military action - preferably by the U.S., but, if not, by Israel - would be necessary, and sooner rather than later.

Since the Jun. 12, 2009 disputed elections and the emergence of the opposition Green Movement in Iran, a few neo- conservatives, notably Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) and Michael Ledeen of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), have argued that a military attack could prove counter-productive by rallying an otherwise discontented - and possibly rebellious - population behind the regime.

But with the Green Movement seemingly unable to challenge the government in the streets that argument has been losing ground among the hawks who, in any event, blame the opposition's alleged weakness on Obama's failure to provide it with more support.

"Unfortunately, President Obama waffled while innocent Iranians were killed by their own government," wrote William Kristol and Jamie Fly, in Kristol's Weekly Standard last month.

"It's now increasingly clear that the credible threat of a military strike against Iran's nuclear program is the only action that could convince the regime to curtail its ambition," wrote the two men, who direct the Foreign Policy Initiative (FPI), the successor organization of the neo- conservative-led Project for the New American Century (PNAC) that played a key role in preparing the ground for the Iraq invasion.

Neo-conservative and other hawks have also pounced on reported remarks by United Arab Emirates (UAE) Amb. Yousef al-Otaiba, at a retreat sponsored by The Atlantic magazine in Colorado this week to nullify another obstacle to military action - the widespread belief that Washington's Arab allies oppose a military attack on Iran by the U.S. or Israel as too risky for their own security and regional stability.

"We cannot live with a nuclear Iran," Otaiba was quoted as saying in a Washington Times article by Eli Lake, a prominent neo-conservative journalist.

"Mr. Otaiba's ...comments leave no doubt what he and most Arab officials think about the prospect of a nuclear revolutionary Shiite state," the Wall Street Journal's editorial board, a major media champion of the Iraq War, opined. "They desperately want someone, and that means the U.S. or Israel, to stop it, using force if need be."

Otaiba was interviewed at the conference by The Atlantic's Jeffrey Goldberg, an influential U.S.-Israeli writer who in a widely noted essay published by The New Yorker magazine in 2002 claimed that Hussein was supporting an al Qaeda group in Kurdistan and that the Iraqi leader would soon possess nuclear weapons.

Goldberg, who asserted in his blog this week that "the idea of a group of Persian Shi'ites having possession of a nuclear bomb ...certainly scares [Arab leaders] more than the reality of the Jewish bomb," is reportedly working on an essay on the necessity of attacking Iran's nuclear facilities for publication by The Atlantic in September.