Showing posts with label science. Show all posts
Showing posts with label science. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 1, 2013

The effects of unchecked criminalization: Teen charged with felony for science experiment


By Sesali Bowen | Published: May 1, 2013

When we talk about the criminalization of communities and people of color, especially African Americans and Latinos in America, we often talk about the criminal justice system in America that disproportionately targets those communities.Schools are often the major accomplices in making this system run with the school to prison pipeline. Nothing exemplifies this more than what is happening to 16 year old Kiera Wilmot in Florida. According to the Miami New Times,
 ”7 a.m. on Monday, the 16 year-old mixed some common household chemicals in a small 8 oz water bottle on the grounds of Bartow High School in Bartow, Florida. The reaction caused a small explosion that caused the top to pop up and produced some smoke. No one was hurt and no damage was caused.
…Wilmot told police that she was merely conducting a science experiment. Though her teachers knew nothing of the specific project, her principal seems to agree.
‘She made a bad choice. Honestly, I don’t think she meant to ever hurt anyone,’ principal Ron Pritchard told the station. ‘She wanted to see what would happen [when the chemicals mixed] and was shocked by what it did. Her mother is shocked, too.’
This sounds like a harmless instance of experimentation gone wrong. No harm, no foul right? Even the principle thinks it was simply a poor decision. A week of detention, maybe even suspension, was in order no doubt. So why did it go down like this?

“After the explosion Wilmot was taken into custody by a school resources officer and charged with possession/discharge of a weapon on school grounds and discharging a destructive device. She will be tried as an adult.
She was then taken to a juvenile assessment center. She was also expelled from school and will be forced to complete her diploma through an expulsion program.”
The school released the following statement:
“Anytime a student makes a bad choice it is disappointing to us. Unfortunately, the incident that occurred at Bartow High School yesterday was a serious breach of conduct. In order to maintain a safe and orderly learning environment, we simply must uphold our code of conduct rules. We urge our parents to join us in conveying the message that there are consequences to actions. We will not compromise the safety and security of our students and staff.”


I call bullshit. This is not about the “safety and security” of students and staff at Bartow High School. This was about setting an example, at the expense of Wilmot, and sending a message that even (mis)perceived threats will be dealt with swiftly and harshly. The unfortunate truth is that in America, those perceptions are heavily tied up in notions of race, class, and gender.

Those perceptions may have helped them come to the conclusion that Wilmot’s concoction was indeed a weapon. The code of conduct clearly states that “intention” is a factor in whether or not there has been a breach of that specific rule. But somehow the principal managed to defend the girls intentions but still expel and have her arrested.

Is the perceived threat to the safety of her classmates and teachers also the reason why Wilmot is being tried as an adult with a felony? A student with good grades and no behavioral problems to speak of should be followed with a felony because she was curious about a chemical reaction? She has been ushered into the criminal justice system with this decision. Access to employment, education, housing, etc. will all be limited to Wilmot with a felony on her record.

As a graduate of a Chicago Public School I am very familiar with teachers not being interested in nurturing the minds of students. Instead, they create a mindless generation that simply does what they’re told, no questions asked, all in the interest of maintaining an orderly “classroom”. Sending students to prisons is the solution for those who can’t be “controlled”. I have witnessed the policing that happens when school staff and administration fears its students, of color. Let me be clear, zero tolerance policies are not about keeping schools safe. They exist to keep school administrators from being held accountable for the environment they create in their institution and making contextual judgement calls.

Tuesday, February 21, 2012

Heartland Institute Leak Exposes Strategies of Climate Attack Machine

The documents show how groups play up controversy to undermine confidence in well-established scientific findings
Bob Ward | Tuesday, February 21, 2012 | The Guardian/UK

After the leak from the Chicago-based thinkthank the Heartland Institute, much attention is now being focused on the alleged deception used by the water scientist Peter Gleick to obtain the sensitive internal documents.

And while acts of deception cannot be condoned, it is also important to note that the documents obtained by Gleick provide an insight into how some of those groups that are fundamentally opposed to reducing emissions of greenhouse gases attempt to convey the impression that their arguments are founded on science rather than on ideology.


The Heartland Institute states on its website that its mission is "to discover, develop, and promote free-market solutions to social and economic problems", and that the aim of its work on climate change is to promote "market-based, rather than government-based, solutions to environmental problems".

The Institute has been one of the most active lobbyists against policies in the United States to curb emissions, primarily by attempting to undermine confidence in the findings of scientific research that climate change is driven mainly by human activities.

One of the newly released documents shows very clearly how the institute intends to target teachers and schoolchildren with this strategy. It begins by claiming:
"Many people lament the absence of educational material suitable for K-12 [kindergarten to 12th grade] students on global warming that isn't alarmist or overtly political. Heartland has tried to make material available to teachers, but has had only limited success. Principals and teachers are heavily biased toward the alarmist perspective."

The document then suggests that it will pay Dr David Wojick, described as "a consultant with the Office of Scientific and Technical Information at the US Department of Energy in the area of information and communication science", to produce teaching materials which emphasise controversy and uncertainty:
"Wojick would produce modules for Grades 7-9 on environmental impact ("environmental impact is often difficult to determine. For example there is a major controversy over whether or not humans are changing the weather"), for Grade 6 on water resources and weather systems, and so on."

This, of course, is a biased and distorted representation of current scientific knowledge, and conflicts with the approach to school lessons outlined by a recent workshop on climate change education, hosted by the United States National Academy of Sciences, which begins with the statement: "The global scientific and policy community now unequivocally accepts that human activities cause global climate change".

However, the emphasis on uncertainty and controversy is very much in line with another famous leaked document, the so-called Luntz memo, which came to light in 2003. It was prepared by Frank Luntz, the favourite opinion pollster of President George W Bush, and contained advice for Republican activists on how to talk to potential voters about environment issues. On climate change, the memo offers the following recommendation:

"The scientific debate remains open. Voters believe that there is no consensus about global warming within the scientific community. Should the public come to believe that the scientific issues are settled, their views about global warming will change accordingly. Therefore, you need to continue to make the lack of scientific certainty a primary issue in the debate, and defer to scientists and other experts in the field."

The strategy of playing up controversy and uncertainty to undermine confidence in well-established scientific findings was pioneered by the tobacco industry to avoid and delay regulation of its products. As Naomi Oreskes and Erik Conway point out in their book Merchants of Doubt:
"Doubt is crucial to science – in the version we call curiosity or healthy scepticism, it drives science forward – but it also makes science vulnerable to misrepresentation, because it is easy to take uncertainties out of context and create the impression that everything is unresolved. This was the tobacco industry's key insight: that you could use normal scientific uncertainty to undermine the status of actual scientific knowledge."

The Heartland Institute documents also contain details of another activity designed to give its ideological campaign against emissions regulations a veneer of scientific credibility. It notes that the Heartland Institute sponsors the Nongovernmental International Panel on Climate Change (NIPCC), an international network of scientists who write and speak out on climate change.

Again this echoes an approach outlined in the Luntz memo:

"You need to be even more active in recruiting experts who are sympathetic to your view, and much more active in making them part of your message. People are much more willing to trust scientists, engineers, and other leading research professionals, and less willing to trust politicians. If you wish to challenge the prevailing wisdom about global warming, it is more effective to have professionals making the case than politicians."

And it also copies the tactics of cigarette companies which, according to Oreskes and Conway, hired a renowned geneticist in the 1950s to "head the Tobacco Industry Research Committee and spearhead the effort to foster the impression of debate, primarily by promoting the work of scientists whose views might be useful to the industry".

The Heartland Institute documents demonstrate once again how those driven by ideological dogma or vested commercial interests attempt to hide their true motives behind a facade of false controversy and uncertainty in science.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

The Fascinating Scientific Reason Why "Money Doesn't Buy Happiness"

By David McRaney, You Are Not So Smart
Posted on January 25, 2012

The Misconception: There is nothing better in the world than getting paid to do what you love.

The Truth: Getting paid for doing what you already enjoy will sometimes cause your love for the task to wane because you attribute your motivation as coming from the reward, not your internal feelings.

Money isn’t everything. Money can’t buy happiness. Don’t live someone else’s dream. Figure out what you love and then figure out how to get paid doing it.

Maxims like these often find their way into your social media; they arrive in your electronic mailbox at the ends of dense chains of forwards. They bubble up from the collective sighs of well-paid boredom around the world and get routinely polished for presentation in graduation speeches and church sermons.

Money, fame, and prestige – they dangle just outside your reach it seems, encouraging you to lean farther and farther over the edge, to study longer and longer, to work harder and harder. When someone reminds you that acquiring currency while ignoring all else shouldn’t be your primary goal in life, it feels good. You retweet it. You post it on your wall. You forward it, and then you go back to work.

If only science had something concrete to say about the whole thing, you know? All these living greeting cards dispensing wisdom are great and all, but what about really putting money to the test? Does money buy happiness? In 2010, scientists published the results of a study looking into that very question.

The research by Daniel Kahneman and Angus Deaton, published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, analyzed the lives and incomes of nearly half-a-million randomly selected U.S. citizens. They dug through the subjects’ lives searching for indicators of something psychologists call “emotional well being,” a clinical term for how often you feel peaks and valleys like “joy, stress, sadness, anger and affection” and to what degree you feel those things daily. In other words, they measured how happy or sad people were over time compared to how much cash they brought home. They did this by checking if the subjects were consistently able to experience the richness of existence, by whether they were tasting the poetic marrow of life.

The researchers discovered money is indeed a major factor in day-to-day happiness. No surprise there. You need to make a certain amount, on average, to be able to afford food, shelter, clothing, entertainment and the occasional Apple product, but what spun top hats around the country was their finding that beyond a certain point your happiness levels off. The happiness money offers doesn’t keep getting more and more potent – it plateaus. The research showed that a lack of money brings unhappiness, but an overabundance does not have the opposite effect.

According to the research, in modern America the average income required to be happy day-to-day, to experience “emotional well being” is about $75,000 a year. According to the researchers, past that point adding more to your income “does nothing for happiness, enjoyment, sadness, or stress.” A person who makes, on average, $250,000 a year has no greater emotional well-being, no extra day-to-day happiness, than a person making $75,000 a year. In Mississippi it is a bit less, in Chicago a bit more, but the point is there is evidence for the existence of a financiohappiness ceiling. The super-wealthy may believe they are happier, and you may agree, but you both share a delusion.

If you don’t already have it, money can improve your life and make you happier, but once you have enough to go to Red Lobster on Tuesday night without worrying about paying the water bill that month, you’re good to go. Or, as Henry David Thoreau once said, “A man is rich in proportion to the number of things which he can afford to let alone.” In the modern United States the ability to let most things alone, according to Kahneman and Deaton’s research, costs about $75,000 a year.

If you find that hard to believe, you aren’t alone. A study in 2011 at Cornell asked Americans which they would rather have, more money or more sleep. Most people said more money. In a choice between either $80,000 a year, normal work hours, and about eight hours of sleep a night versus $140,000 a year, routine overtime, and six hours of nightly dreams – the majority of people went with the cash. It’s unfortunate, because although it looks good on paper and feels right in your gut, the research has never agreed. No matter how you turn it, the science says once your basic needs are taken care of, money and other rewards don’t make you happier, and you can appreciate why after examining a psychological jewel called the overjustification effect. To understand it, we must travel to 1973 when a group of psychologists poisoned a few children’s love of drawing in the name of science.

Throughout the 20th century, as psychology came into its own as a scientific discipline, many psychologists emerged from the halls of academia and ascended to the rank of celebrity after delivering open-palmed scientific slaps to the face of mankind. Sigmund Freud got people talking about the unconscious and the malleable, hidden world of desires and fears. Carl Jung put the ideas of archetypes, introversion, and extroversion into our vocabulary. Abraham Maslow gave us a hierarchy of needs including hugs and sex. Timothy Leary fed Harvard students psychedelic mushrooms and advocated that an entire generation should use LSD to “turn on, tune in, and drop out.” There are many more, but in the 1970s, B.F. Skinner was the rock star of psychology.

Skinner and his boxes made the cover of Time magazine in 1971 underneath the ominous proclamation, “We Can’t Afford Freedom.” His research into behaviorism had made its way into the public consciousness, and he was intent on using his celebrity to convince all of humanity there was no such thing as free will. You’ve seen his findings in practice. The Supernanny and The Dog Whisperer reward desired behavior and either punish or ignore undesired behavior – and they get impressive results. Skinner could make birds do figure eights on his command, or train them to pilot guided missiles. He invented climate-controlled baby boxes in which infants never cried. He created teaching machines that still influence user interfaces today. But, he also scared a romantic generation of freedom seekers into thinking freedom might be an illusion.

Skinner said all human thoughts and behaviors were just reactions to stimuli – conditioned responses. To believe as Skinner did is to believe everything you do is part of seeking a reward or avoiding a punishment. Your entire life is just a stack of evolutionarily selected against quirks and desires seasoned with programmed interests and fears. There is no self. There is no one in control. Those things are illusions, side effects of a complex nervous system observing its own actions and cognitions. In light of this, Skinner advocated we build a society through setting goals and then condition people toward those goals through positive reinforcement. Skinner didn’t trust human beings not to be lazy, greedy, and violent. Humans, he said, were inclined to seek and reinforce status through institutions, class warfare, and bloodshed. People can’t be trusted with freedom, he told the world. Psychology could instead design systems to condition people toward positive goals that ensure the best possible quality of life for all.

As you might imagine, the proclamation humans have no soul, or at least no special spark, caused a great deal of mental indigestion. Many psychologists resisted the idea that you are nothing more than chemical reactions on top of physical laws playing themselves out no differently than a rock slide crashing down the side of a mountain or a tree converting sunlight and carbon dioxide into wood. Skinner claimed what goes on inside your head is irrelevant, that the environment, the stuff outside your skull determines behavior, thoughts, emotions, beliefs and so on. It was a bold and terrifying claim to many, so science set about the task of picking it apart.

Among those who wanted to know if the mind was just a pile of reactions to rewards and punishments were psychologists Mark Lepper, Daniel Greene and Richard Nisbett. They wondered if thinking about thinking played a bigger role than the behaviorists suggested. In their book, The Hidden Costs of Reward, they detail one experiment in particular which helped pull psychology out from under what they called Skinner’s “long shadow.”

In 1973, Lepper, Greene and Nisbett met with teachers of a preschool class, the sort that generates a steady output of macaroni art and paper-bag vests. They arranged for the children to have a period of free time in which the tots could choose from a variety of different fun activities. Meanwhile, the psychologists would watch from behind a one-way mirror and take notes. The teachers agreed, and the psychologists watched. To proceed, they needed children with a natural affinity for art. So as the kids played, the scientists searched for the ones who gravitated toward drawing and coloring activities. Once they identified the artists of the group, the scientists watched them during free time and measured their participation and interest in drawing for later comparison.

They then divided the children into three groups. They offered Group A a glittering certificate of awesomeness if the artists drew during the next fun time. They offered Group B nothing, but if the kids in Group B happened to draw they received an unexpected certificate of awesomeness identical to the one received by Group A. The experimenters told Group C nothing ahead of time, and later the scientists didn’t award a prize if those children went for the colored pencils and markers. The scientists then watched to see how the kids performed during a series of playtimes over three days. They awarded the prizes, stopped observations, and waited two weeks. When they returned, the researchers watched as the children faced the same the choice as before the experiment began. Three groups, three experiences, many fun activities – how do you think their feelings changed?

Well, Group B and Group C didn’t change at all. They went to the art supplies and created monsters and mountains and houses with curly-cue smoke streams crawling out of rectangular chimneys with just as much joy as they had before they met the psychologists. Group A, though, did not. They were different people now. The children in Group A “spent significantly less time” drawing than did the others, and they “showed a significant decrease in interest in the activity” as compared to before the experiment. Why?

The children in Group A were swept up, overpowered, their joy perverted by the overjustification effect. The story they told themselves wasn’t the same story the other groups were telling. That’s how the effect works.

Self-perception theory says you observe your own behavior and then, after the fact, make up a story to explain it. That story is sometimes close to the truth, and sometimes it is just something nice that makes you feel better about being a person. For instance, researchers at Stanford University once divided students into two groups. One received a small cash payment for turning wooden knobs round and round for an hour. The other group received a generous payment for the same task. After the hour, a researcher asked students in each group to tell the next person after them who was about to perform the same boring task that turning knobs was fun and interesting. After that, everyone filled out a survey in which they were asked to say how they truly felt. The people paid a pittance reported the study was a blast. The people paid well reported it was awful. Subjects in both groups lied to the person after them, but the people paid well had a justification, an extrinsic reward to fall back on. The other group had no safety net, no outside justification, so they invented one inside. To keep from feeling icky, they found solace in an internal justification – they thought, “you know, it really was fun when you think about.” That’s called the insufficient justification effect, the yang to overjustification’s yin. In telling themselves the story, the only difference was the size of the reward and whether or not they felt extrinsically or intrinsically motivated. You are driven at the fundamental level in most everything you choose to do by either intrinsic or extrinsic goals.

Intrinsic motivations come from within. As Daniel Pink explained in his excellent book, Drive, those motivations often include mastery, autonomy, and purpose. There are some things you do just because they fulfill you, or they make you feel like you are becoming better at a task, or that you are a master of your destiny, or that you play a role in the grand scheme of things, or that you are helping society in some way. Intrinsic rewards demonstrate to yourself and others the value of being you. They are blurry and difficult to quantify. Charted on a graph, they form long slopes stretching into infinity. You strive to become an amazing cellist, or you volunteer in the campaign of an inspiring politician, or you build the starship Enterprise in Minecraft.

Extrinsic motivations come from without. They are tangible baubles handed over for tangible deeds. They usually exist outside of you before you begin a task. These sorts of motivations include money, prizes and grades, or in the case of punishment, the promise of losing something you like or gaining something you do not. Extrinsic motivations are easy to quantify, and can be demonstrated in bar graphs or tallied on a calculator. You work a double shift for the overtime pay so you can make rent. You put in the hours to become a doctor hoping your father will finally deliver the praise for which you long. You say no to the cheesecake so you can fit into those pants at the Christmas party. If you can admit to yourself that the reward is the only reason you are doing what you are doing – the situps, the spreadsheet, the speed limit – it is probably extrinsic.

Whether a reward is intrinsic or extrinsic helps determine the setting of your narrative – the marketplace or the heart. As Dan Ariely writes in his book, Predictably Irrational, you tend to unconsciously evaluate your behavior and that of others in terms of social norms or market norms. Helping a friend move for free doesn’t feel the same as helping a friend move for $50. It feels wonderful to slip into the same bed with your date after getting to know them and staying up one night making key lime cupcakes and talking about the differences and similarities between Breaking Bad and The Wire, but if after all of that the other person tosses you a $100 bill and says, “Thanks, that was awesome,” you will feel crushed by the terrible weight of market norms. Payments in terms of social norms are intrinsic, and thus your narrative remains impervious to the overjustification effect. Those sorts of payments come as praise and respect, a feeling of mastery or camaraderie or love. Payments in terms of market norms are extrinsic, and your story becomes vulnerable to overjustification. Marketplace payments come as something measurable, and in turn they make your motivation measurable when before it was nebulous, up for interpretation and easy to rationalize.

The deal the children struck with the experimenters ruined their love of art during playtime, not because they received a reward. After all, Group B got the same reward and kept their desire to draw. No, it wasn’t the prize but the story they told themselves about why they chose what they chose, why they did what they did. During the experiment, Group C thought, “I just drew this picture because I love to draw!” Group B thought, “I just got rewarded for doing something I love to do!” Group A thought, “I just drew this to win an award!” When all three groups were faced with the same activity, Group A was faced with a metacognition, a question, a burden unknown to the other groups. The scientists in the knob-turning study and the child artists study showed Skinner’s view was too narrow. Thinking about thinking changes things. Extrinsic rewards can steal your narrative.

As Lepper, Greene and Nisbett wrote, “engagement in an activity of initial interest under conditions that make salient to the person the instrumentality of engagement in that activity as a means to some ulterior end may lead to decrements in subsequent, intrinsic interest in the activity.” In other words, if you are offered a reward to do something you love and then agree, you will later question whether you continue to do it for love or for the reward.

In 1980, David Rosenfield, Robert Folger and Harold Adelman at Southern Methodist University revealed a way you can defeat the overjustification effect. Seek employers who dole out reward – paychecks, bonuses, promotions, etc. – based not on quotas or task completions but instead based on competence. They ran an experiment in which they told subjects the goal was to find fun and interesting ways to improve vocabulary skills in schools. They placed participants in two categories and two groups per category. In one category, subjects would be paid for being good at their task. In the other category, the subjects would be paid for completing a task. The subjects received 26 dice with letters on their faces instead of dots and a stack of index cards each with 13 random letters. The subjects hit a timer and used their dice to make words from the letters on the cards. Once they had used nine letters or spent a minute-and-a-half trying, they moved on to the next index card and kept repeating until the experiment ended. It was difficult but fun, and as the players kept going they started to improve in their abilities.

In the payment for competence category, Group A was told they were being payed based on how well they did compared to the average score. In Group B, the subjects were told the same thing, but there was no mention of any reward. In the payment for completion category, the scientists told Group C each completed puzzle would increase their payout, and Group D was told they would be paid by the hour.

After the games, the experimenters pretended to tally up the subjects’ scores and showed Groups A and B how well they did. No matter how they actually performed, the scientists told half of Groups A and B they did poorly and half they were amazing at the game. Groups C and D, the ones who were paid for completions, were also split. Half got low pay and half high pay. The subjects then filled out a questionnaire and sat alone in the room with the dice and cards for three minutes. During that alone time the real study began. The scientists wanted to see who would keep playing the game for fun and for how long.

The people in Groups A and B, the ones who were paid for being better than average, they picked up the game and played it for over two minutes, but slightly less than that if they were told they weren’t that good. The people in groups C and D, the ones paid for completions, didn’t play it for fun for as long as did the people in the competency groups, and they tended to play longer the less they were paid.

The results of the study suggested when you get rewarded based on how well you perform a task, as long as those reasons are made perfectly clear, rewards will generate that electric exuberance of intrinsic validation, and the higher the reward, the better the feeling and the more likely you will try harder in the future. On the other hand, if you are getting rewarded just for being a warm body, no matter how well you do your job, no matter what you achieve, the electric feeling is absent. In those conditions greater rewards don’t lead to more output, don’t encourage you to strive for greatness. Overall, the study suggested rewards don’t have motivational power unless they make you feel competent. Money alone doesn’t do that. With money, when you explain to yourself why you worked so hard, all you can come up with is, “to get paid.” You come to believe you are being coerced, paid off, bought out. In the absence of what the scientists called “competency feedback” there is no story to tell yourself that paints you as a badass. Quotas and overtime and hourly pay don’t offer such indications of competency. Bonuses based on a reaching a specific number of completions or reaching a quantified goal make you feel like a machine.

If you pay people to complete puzzles instead of paying them for being smart, they lose interest in the game. If you pay children to draw, fun becomes work. Payment on top of compliments and other praise and feeling good about personal achievement are powerful motivators, but only if they are unexpected. Only then can you continue to tell the story that keeps you going; only then can you still explain your motivation as coming from within.

Consider the story you tell yourself about why you do what you do for a living. How vulnerable is that tale to these effects?

Maybe your story goes like this: Work is just a means to an end. You go to work; you get paid. You exchange effort for survival tokens and the occasional steampunk thong from Etsy. Work is not fun. Work pays bills. Fun happens at places that are not work. Your story is in no danger if that’s how you see things. In an environment like that Skinner’s assumptions hold true, you will only work as hard as is necessary to keep getting paychecks. If offered greater rewards, you’ll work harder for them.

Maybe your story goes like this though: I love what I do. It changes lives. It makes the world a better place. I am slowly becoming a master in my field, and I get to choose how I solve problems. My bosses value my efforts, depend on me, and offer praise. In that scenario, rewards just get in the way of your job. As Kahneman’s and Deaton’s study about happiness showed, once you earn enough to be happy day-to-day, motivation must come from something else. As Kahneman and Deaton’s research into happiness and money showed, the only material reward worth seeking once you have a bed, running water and access to microwave popcorn, are tributes, symbols to all of your merit, stuff that demonstrates your effectance to yourself and others. Ranks, degrees, gold stars, trophies, Nobel Prizes and Academy Awards – these are shorthand indicators of your competence. Those rewards amplify your internal motivations; they build your self-esteem and strengthen your feelings of self-efficacy. They show you’ve leveled up in the real world. Achievement unlocked. They help you construct a personal narrative you enjoy telling.

The overjustification effect threatens your fragile narratives, especially if you haven’t figured out what to do with your life. You run the risk of seeing your behavior as motivated by profit instead of interest if you agree to get paid for something you would probably do for free. Conditioning will not only fail, it will pollute you. You run the risk of believing the reward, not your passion, was responsible for your effort, and in the future it will be a challenge to generate enthusiasm. It becomes more and more difficult to look back on your actions and describe them in terms of internal motivations. The thing you love can become drudgery if that which can’t be measured is transmuted into something you can plug into TurboTax.

Monday, February 7, 2011

The Dumbing Down of America

Saturday, February 5, 2011 by The Miami Herald
by Leonard Pitts Jr.
ITEM: Only 28 percent of high school science teachers consistently follow National Research Council guidelines encouraging them to present students with evidence of evolution. Thirteen percent ``explicitly advocate creationism or intelligent design.''
These are among the findings of Penn State political scientists Michael Berkman and Eric Plutzer after examining data from a representative survey of 926 high school biology teachers. Writing in the Jan. 28 issue of Science magazine, they report that most science teachers -- 60 percent -- cheat controversy by such stratagems as telling students it does not matter if they ``believe'' in evolution, so long as they understand enough to pass a test. Or they teach evolution on a par with creationism and encourage students to make up their own minds.

* * *

Once upon a time, there lived a stupid giant.

The giant had not always been stupid. Or, perhaps it is more accurate to say the giant had once revered intelligence, reason and the byproducts thereof. Indeed, the giant was renowned for an ingenuity and standard of living that made it the envy of the world.

But much of the world did more than envy the giant. Much of the world admired and respected it. Its basic decency, along with its strength and intelligence, set it apart.

There came a time, however, when, though the giant retained its strength and arguably even its decency, it lost its intelligence.

No one can say exactly how and when the loss occurred. There was no great blast of thunder and lightning to herald it, no sudden instant when the giant's intelligence plummeted dramatically from the instant before.

No, stupidity crept over the giant with the stealth of twilight, a product less of one abrupt moment than of a thousand moments of complacency, of resting on laurels, of allowing curiosity to be teased and bullied out of bright children, of dumbing down textbooks so kids could get better grades with less work, of using ``smart'' like a curse word. And, of behaving as if knowing things, and being able to extrapolate from and otherwise make critical use of, the things one knows, was a betrayal of some fundamental human authenticity -- some need to keep it real.

Stupidity stole over the giant until it could no longer tell science from faith, or conventional wisdom from actual wisdom and in any event, valued ideological purity above them all. Stupidity snaked over the giant until science teachers shrank from teaching science, history books contained history that wasn't history, late-night comics got easy laughs from people on the street who could not say when the War of 1812 was fought, political leaders told outright lies with blithe smiles and no fear of being caught and you would not have been surprised to hear that someone had fixed mathematics, so that 2+2 could now equal 17, thus preserving the all-important self esteem of second-grade kids.

Some regarded the giant's stupidity as a danger. They reasoned that when one is so big that one's merest movement or slightest utterance affects the entire world, it's a good idea if those movements and utterances are animated by something more than autonomic function.

Others saw the giant's stupidity as an opportunity. They learned eagerly until they surpassed the giant's intellect. They grew until they rivaled the giant's size and strength. They did not attempt to match the giant's decency. They considered decency a hindrance.

And the giant? It sat on its haunches in the mud as the world changed about it and new giants rose and shook their fists. The giant did not notice. It was watching The Jersey Shore on MTV.

And it lived obliviously ever after.

Thursday, October 28, 2010

Keeping science out of politics

The new barbarism
Climate skeptics reach a new low. Their goal: Don't let scientists influence policy, period.
By Andrew Leonard - Wednesday, Oct 27, 2010

Joe Romm, climate activist extraordinaire, is upset at Scientific American for featuring a dumb online poll on global warming.

Online polls are notoriously amenable to manipulation, and it seems pretty clear that climate skeptics organized in force to skew the results. Like Romm, I have a hard time believing that anything close to 56.1 percent of Scientific American readers believe that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is "a corrupt organization, prone to groupthink, with a political agenda."

But even if you grant that the poll was the victim of an organized attack, I'm still amazed by what we can learn from it. In response to the question "Which policy options do you support?" 42 percent of the respondents chose the answer "keeping science out of the political process."

Say what?

Keep science out of the political process? Science? I thought it was supposed to be the other way around; that the goal was to keep politics out of science. I can understand, albeit disagree with, categorizations of anthropogenic global warming as bad science, but I'm afraid I just can't come to grips with the notion that we should keep "science" from influencing politics at all. What is the point of civilization in the first place if we don't use our hard-won understanding of how the universe works to influence our decisions on how to organize ourselves?

Watching one Republican candidate for office after another declare outright that they do not believe humans are causing climate change is befuddling enough. But to flat-out reject science as a guide to policy is beyond medieval. It's a retreat to pure superstition, a surrender to barbarism. We might as well be reading omens in the entrails of sacrificial animals. Our wealth as a country, our incredible technological wonders -- the Industrial Revolution! -- were built upon scientific discovery.

Should the FDA reject clinical test results in deciding whether to approve a drug? Should the U.S. Corp of Engineers ignore physics when building dams and levees? Scientists say asbestos is dangerous to human health and cigarette smoking causes cancer. Who cares? Let's continue to build public schools packed with the fire-retardant material and give free Camel nonfilters to teenagers!

We need more science in the political process, not less. The countries that understand that will thrive and prosper. The ones that don't will undoubtedly fail, if they haven't already doomed themselves.

Saturday, July 17, 2010

Nuclear fusion – what is it worth?

Experiments in fusion power have at last started to prove its viability. It would be foolish not to continue funding research
Steven Cowley | Friday 16 July 2010

Fusion is arguably the perfect way to power the world. For one thing, there is enough fusion fuel to supply all of the world's energy needs for millions of years. Furthermore, it produces no environmentally damaging wastes, no carbon dioxide emissions and there could be no accidents that require evacuating the population surrounding a fusion power plant. Fusion plants would also not need significant land area, and fusion fuels (lithium and deuterium) are available in seawater. Unfortunately, it is hard to make fusion work. Indeed, after more than 60 years of fusion research, no device has yet made more energy than it consumes.

Iter, the next fusion machine and the first to be built as an international collaboration, is designed to demonstrate the scientific feasibility of net energy production. It is expected that Iter will produce about 500MW of fusion power – 10 times the input power. Just as importantly, it will show how to integrate the many cutting-edge technologies required for efficient and reliable future power station designs. Put simply, it is the big step needed to prove the viability of fusion as a commercial energy source.

Unfortunately, Iter's construction expenses have risen from about €5bn to over €13bn and the cost overruns have prompted some to question why chasing nuclear fusion is a priority. How sure are we that Iter will work? Could this money be spent more wisely in other areas of energy research, such as renewables or new fission? My answer is that fusion is more than desirable. It may be crucially necessary.

Burning coal, oil, or natural gas generates 80% of the world's primary energy. This simply can't continue much longer. Fossil fuels are diminishing resources, and burning them adversely affects climate and the environment. If we ask what energy sources could take over the role of fossil fuels, there are only three candidates with sufficient long-term resource: solar, nuclear fission with uranium or thorium breeders and nuclear fusion. Other sources will play important but lesser roles, for example wind may provide 10-20% of energy supply.

All three long-term options require substantial research and development before they are ready, or cheap enough, to be deployed on a large scale. None are certain to deliver everything so it would be foolish not to fund research on all three.

How likely is Iter's success? To make fusion we must heat a very hot gas (or plasma) of hydrogen-like fuels to temperatures 10 times those at the centre of the sun (100-200m degrees C) and hold it in place in a containment vessel using powerful magnetic fields. Experiments at the Joint European Torus (Jet) in the UK regularly achieve such conditions. Indeed Jet has produced 16MW of fusion power. So fusion works. Sophisticated computer simulations and empirical extrapolations from Jet and other machines predict that Iter will reach and perhaps exceed its target performance. If this is true then we could see following Iter with the first electricity-producing prototype fusion reactor by the end of the 2030s.

Is Iter worth the increased cost? Iter has to be large and technically advanced – and that comes with a big bill. Of the €13bn price tag (over 10 years), Europe, as host of Iter, pays 45% (around €6bn). The cost overrun in 2011/2013 will be €1.4bn. It has now been decided to redeploy funds to cover the gap from the overall European research budget.

For a commodity so vital to the way we live our lives, the €10bn spent yearly by the public sector worldwide on energy research is pitifully low – about 0.2% of the approximately €5tn world energy market. Compare this with the $20bn (€15.5bn) that BP has set aside to deal with all aspects of the Gulf oil spill. With this perspective Iter's cost seems appropriate. I would argue that the ultimate prize of commercial fusion power makes Iter a project well worth pursuing. Indeed, I would advocate increases in all areas of energy research worldwide, including renewables and fission.

Perhaps we will end up with many energy options – several belts and braces, too – but it is too early to tell. Let's do the research. We owe it to our grandchildren.

Wednesday, July 14, 2010

Merchants of Doubt

July 8, 2010 by Brian Angliss

What do the following things all have in common: tobacco safety and the dangers of secondhand smoke, the Strategic Defense Initiative, acid rain, the ozone hole, global warming, and the recent attacks on Rachel Carson (author of Silent Spring)? According to the new book by science historians Naomi Oreskes and Erik M. Conway, Merchants of Doubt, they were all manipulated by a very small group of once well respected scientists whose radical free-market and anti-communist ideologies corrupted them to the point of attacking scientists, scientific organizations, and ultimately the process of science itself.

Merchants of Doubt focuses on seven different areas that are presented roughly how they’ve occurred chronologically, starting with the safety of tobacco in the 1950s, proceeding through nuclear war and the misguided defense of SDI, the opposition to regulation of both acid rain and CFCs, and finishing up with the recent attacks on global warming and attempts at historical revisionism with respect to Rachel Carson and the regulation of DDT. But through all of these areas, the main cast of characters barely changes, the methods used to attack scientific conclusions remain remarkably consistent, and the goals of the attacks become clearer and clearer.

We learn reading Merchants of Doubt that Fredrick Seitz, Robert Jastrow, William Nierenberg, and S. Fred Singer were the main instigators of attacks on science in service of their ideology. Several were involved with the development of the atomic bomb and all were cold warriors who equated environmentalism with communism and/or socialism. All four men believed the teachings of Milton Friedman, who taught that capitalism equals freedom, and so to rein in capitalism to stop a market failure (which is what most environmental problems are) meant to put limits on freedom. And because these men couldn’t stomach the possibility that their ideology was wrong, they sought to corrupt the public sphere and science itself to protect their ideology.

One way that Oreskes and Conway found the scientists had done this was by attacking numerical models. The early computer models that supported the hypothesis that the dinosaurs were killed by an asteroid impact were also used to estimate how the global climate might react to other major effects, such as the eruption of a supervolcano, global warming, and nuclear winter. Nierenberg and Singer didn’t like the results of the nuclear winter models because the model results ran contrary to the “USSR is a major threat, SDI must happen” narrative that the two men had created. The problem was that the models showed that even a small nuclear exchange would throw the entire globe into climatic upheaval, and the supporters of SDI didn’t like this. So a cousin of Fredrick Seitz attacked the models – in 1986. Attacks on climate modeling have grown as the models have radically improved and as the models’ projections have been observed.

Another tactic described in Merchants of Doubt was attacking the science was by manipulating the media. The Fairness Doctrine was used by Seitz and the tobacco industry to force reporters and editors to give equal time to the tobacco industry when countering scientific claims about the dangers of smoking and later secondhand smoke. A greater problem with the media, however, was that Seitz, Jastrow, Nierenberg, and Singer could attack the science they didn’t like in the mainstream media without reprisal. Scientists who tried to demand corrections were ignored by the media and forced to publish their corrections in the scientific press instead of the mainstream media. Merchants of Doubt describes repeated incidents with respect to the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal, which published erroneous columns, heavily edited or simply refused to publish correction letters, and rebutted expert scientists with industry spokespeople. PR firms even went so far as to provide stories for publication in Scientific American that were linked and referenced in media reports and full page advertisements as if they’d been peer reviewed. Singer himself finally got to the point where he would repeatedly make false claims about the science even in the face of rebuttals that proved him wrong – he simply continued on as if the rebuttal had never occurred.

Merchants of Doubt also describes how Seitz et al misrepresented scientific uncertainty to their advantage over the course of the last 60 years. The scientists did this in a number of ways, starting by equating two different types of uncertainty – uncertainty with respect to causes vs. uncertainty with respect to effects. Acid rain experts knew what caused acid rain with great certainty, but the effects of acid rain on lakes, forests, and ecosystem health were unknown, so Nierenberg and Singer said that the uncertainty in the effects justified more research on the causes of acid rain. Singer and Seitz misused uncertainty to attack the EPA and the data linking secondhand smoke to lung cancer by claiming that medical researchers couldn’t know all the risk factors and so couldn’t conclude that there actually was an increased risk for lung cancer caused by secondhand smoke. This flew in the face of decades of statistical experiment design and ignored the fact that the link had been detected on three continents in multiple ethic groups and across all economic levels. Oreskes and Conway found these two methods have been and are being used in combination to oppose taking action on global warming.

Oreskes and Conway point out that economics has been used to counter science since at least the Reagan Administration. For example, panels that were formed to address only the accuracy of the science were saddled with economic analyses that had not been asked for and that valued ecosystem services at $0 in their cost/benefit comparisons. Another example is that the analysis that estimated economic damage due to acid rain used a very high discount rate to devalue future damages in favor of present-day profits. This economic tactic has since been used to devalue the economic effects of global warming on future generations by economists like William Nordhaus and Bjorn Lomborg [Correction: Lomborg is not himself an economist, but he makes economic arguments that rely on a high discount rate]. And the authors point out how every environmental problem is evidence of the failure of free market fundamentalism: “If you believed in capitalism, you had to attack science, because science had revealed the hazards that capitalism had brought in its wake.”

There are a few other points that were clear from reading Merchants of Doubt. First, Reagan’s presidency was where much of this really took off. The Reagan White House was hostile to acid rain regulations and didn’t like the unanimous scientific assessment of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), and so the White House created an acid rain panel specifically created to undermine the NAS. The panel was chaired by Nierenberg and had Singer as a direct White House appointment. Reagan wanted the MX missile and the SDI, so the Reagan White House ignored the intelligence community and formed an outside group to provide the anti-”Commie” justifications for the creation of the MX and SDI. That panel was also headed by Nierenberg.

Second, attacks on the science serve as indirect defenses of Milton Friedman’s free market fundamentalism, but the defense is ironic for several reasons. One irony is that free markets rely on accurate information to function properly, and yet the people involved in attacking science have done their best to make information as inaccurate as possible. A second irony is that the free market fundamentalists used Orwellian tactics to fight against those perceived as being “watermelons” – green on the outside, red on the inside – and yet Orwell had ascribed those tactics to the USSR. A final irony is that, in their fight to stall environmental regulations as long as possible, Seitz et al are responsible for making environmental issues so serious that draconian anti-free market measures may be the only way to solve them. As a result, it’s entirely possible that the free market ideas espoused by Seitz et al may not survive their own machinations to save them.

Finally, while the only one of the four scientists still alive today is Singer, the web of libertarian organizations that pushed the anti-science messages of Seitz, Jastrow, Nierenberg, and Singer is alive and well. Organizations such as the American Enterprise Institute, the Competitive Enterprise Institute, the Heritage Foundation, the Heartland Institute, the Reason Foundation, the CATO Institute, the Marshall Institute, and many other smaller and less well funded organizations continue to use the tactics pioneered by Seitz et al against environmentalism in particular and science in general, all in support of an economic system that is clearly collapsing.

Merchants of Doubt was researched over years spent reading hundreds of thousands of page, and there are about 1100 references (an average of 138 for every chapter and the conclusion), so no mere summary or review could hope to do more than scratch the surface of the information contained in this book. Because the book points out the factual failings of Chicago-school economic theory, it will be dismissed by supporters of free market fundamentalism as an attack on their ideology. But the facts and references contained within
Merchants of Doubt are so compelling that it cannot be dismissed with a mere “talk to the hand.” The facts cannot be denied any longer – no free markets can address clearly market failures like acid rain and global warming, and ignoring reality only works for so long before reality finally does something that simply cannot be ignored.

Seitz and the others claimed that the world had time to address all these things, but time is running out to address global warming without major social and economic upheaval. But there is a little hope to be had in Merchants of Doubt. While addressing tobacco took about 50 years, it took only about 30 years to address secondhand smoke. The MX missile and SDI were ultimately shut down, even though the government wasted billions on each program. Acid rain is being addressed, albeit slowly and inefficiently with a cap-and-trade system. And the attacks on Rachel Carson’s DDT legacy don’t appear to be taking hold in the wider public mind.

If you start with the Jasons in 1977, we’re 33 years into the global warming battle. If you start with James Hansen’s testimony before the House of Representatives in 1988, we’re only 22 years in. That we’ve come so far already means we may actually be learning how to counter the anti-science arguments created by Seitz, Jastrow, Nierenberg, and Singer.

Tuesday, June 1, 2010

What About the OTA is Pelosi Afraid Of?

Starving the OTA
By RALPH NADER

When the Republican Gingrich devolution took over Congress in 1995, it stripped the Congressional Office of Technology Assessment (OTA) of all its funding and left it a shell with no experts to advise committees and members of Congress.

Whereupon Congress was plunged into a dark age regarding decisions about trillions of national security, offshore oil drilling, transportation, energy, health, computer, biotech, nanotechnology and many other executive branch programs in science and technology.

Confronted with partisan vested interests by federal departments and their corporate lobbies, Congress could not get objective, unbiased reports and testimony from the OTA. For a budget of $20 million a year, OTA ground out over 700 peer reviewed sound reports and many more Congressional testimonies by its staff between 1972 and 1995. Last year Congress had an overall budget for itself of $3.2 billion.

Representative Amo Houghton (R-NY) commented at the time of OTA’s demise that “we are cutting off one of the most important arms of Congress when we cut off unbiased knowledge about science and technology.”

Now, Rush Holt (D-NJ) backed by leading scientists and about 100 citizen, technical and academic groups, organized by the Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS), is urging Speaker Nancy Pelosi to permit a modest restart of the OTA. As noted above, OTA was never abolished, just defunded.

Speaker Pelosi has been resisting, even though this tiny office can provide members of Congress with the technical assessments that could easily save billions of dollars a year. Apparently, she believes that the Republicans will accuse her of empire building, though the OTA is run by an evenly appointed Democratic-Republican Board of Congressional Overseers.

Without the OTA, commercially driven or otherwise wild claims are made for and against Congressionally funded programs.

The UCS gives many examples of where OTA saved huge amounts of taxpayer money and improved the health, safety and economic well-being of the American people as well. OTA reports, by responding to requests by members of Congress, analyzed what technologies worked or did not work.

After OTA was defunded, the UCS asserts, “the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) spent three years pushing for a costly radiation detection system for smuggled nuclear material that did not work as promised, while neglecting to upgrade existing equipment that could have improved security.” Billions of dollars were wasted.

Were it operating today, OTA reports and testimony might question DHS’s installation of whole body back scatter x-ray airport security scanners. Scientific experts are urging independent testing for effectiveness and safety for exposed passengers (see CSRL.org).

On other fronts, Congress is buckling to corporate lobbies and requiring taxpayer guarantees for nuclear power plants that are not nearly as cost effective as energy efficiency and renewables without the perils of atomic power and its unstored radioactive wastes.

The $9 billion a year missile defense project has been condemned as unworkable by the mainstream American Physical Society but the military corporations that receive these boondoggle contracts get it funded year after year.

The risks of nanotechnology, biotechnology and numerous medical devices continue to be unassessed, thereby allowing Congressional advocates to tout benefits and ignore costs.

Congress spends billions of dollars a year on technologies driven by commercial partisan interests, whether from government departments, corporate interests or campaign cash. Congress also ignores promising technologies. Decades of little or no solar energy research and development funding, and billions of dollars into atomic, coal and other fossil fuels, directly or indirectly through tax breaks, have cost Americans in their pocketbooks and in the air and water they breath and drink.

In 1985, OTA issued a report cautioning about the lack of preparedness and knowledge regarding potentially “catastrophic oil spills from offshore operations.” OTA could not follow up on this report, as the oil companies went into deeper seas, because it was silenced in 1995. Clearly, the Minerals Management Service of the Interior Department—a sleazy, wholly-owned subsidiary of Big Oil—was not going to advise Congress truthfully.

Through its impartial assessment capability, OTA could have alerted Congress to defective body armor that unscrupulous companies sold to the Army.

Congress needs an independent, impartial, no-axe-to-grind technical adviser under its own roof and responsive to the unique and timely needs of members of Congress and Congressional committees. Imagine, for example, the computer procurement waste that could have been prevented.

Speaker Pelosi, don’t you want to make this overwhelming case for a revived OTA? Why are you silent when you should be outspoken on behalf of taxpayers and appropriate, safe technology? Be assured that having championed OTA since the days of Director John H. Gibbons many other groups and I will be working to secure your backing sooner rather than later.

Friday, May 21, 2010

Review: A Short History of Medicine’s Beautiful Idea, and Our Difficulty Swallowing It

Medicine’s Beautiful Idea
by Harriet Hall

For most of human history, doctors have killed their patients more often than they have saved them. An excellent new book, Taking the Medicine: A Short History of Medicine’s Beautiful Idea, and Our Difficulty Swallowing It, by Druin Burch, MD, describes medicine’s bleak past, how better ways of thinking led to modern successes, and how failure to adopt those better ways of thinking continues to impede medical progress.
The moral is not that doctors once did foolish things. The moral is that even the best of people let themselves down when they rely on untested theories and that these failures kill people and stain history. Bleeding and mercury have gone out of fashion, untested certainties and overconfidence have not.
Burch’s conversation with his rowing coach epitomizes the problem:
“I want you to keep your heart rate at 85% of max for the next hour and a half.”
“Why?”
“Because it’s the best way to improve your fitness.”
“How do you know?”
“Because I’ve done it before and it worked. Because that’s what the people who win the Olympics do. I know, I’ve trained some of them.”
“But has anyone actually done an experiment?”
“What on earth are you talking about?”
This book is Burch’s answer to his coach’s question. Medicine’s “beautiful idea” is that we should test all hypotheses and beliefs using the kind of tests that are reliable for determining the truth. Instead of going by tradition, authority, theory, common sense, or personal experience, we now have effective tools to find out for sure whether a treatment really works.

The scientific method developed slowly and there were a lot of hiccups on the way. Researchers frequently misunderstood what constituted evidence.

In an early Chinese experiment, two people were asked to run together. One was given ginseng; the other, who didn’t get ginseng, developed shortness of breath. They thought that was sufficient evidence to prove that ginseng prevented shortness of breath.

Galen gave one of his potions to a lot of patients: some recovered, some died. He thought that was evidence that the potion worked, because
All who drink of this treatment recover in a short time, except those whom it does not help, who all die. It is obvious, therefore, that it fails only in incurable cases.
Galen’s fallacious reasoning is easy to spot, but a 20th century doctor committed a similar error. He gave all his patients aspirin and asserted it was 100% effective in preventing heart attacks. Some of them did have heart attacks, but he didn’t count them because on close questioning he found that they had omitted doses or otherwise didn’t strictly follow the aspirin protocol (which was probably equally true of all his patients).

Even after the importance of randomization was recognized, there were errors in applying the principle. In early trials, randomization was by alternate allocation, where the first subject to enroll is put in group A, the second in group B, the third in group A, etc. But doctors tended to bend the rules to put certain patients in the treatment group. True randomization had to be forced on doctors who thought they knew what was best for their patients and who didn’t even realize they were cheating.

Humility is required of those who have theories rather than evidence. If they design experiments simply to confirm their prejudices, they are in danger of designing bad ones or misinterpreting results. The more researchers want to prove that the results were due to their favored treatment, the more exhaustive should be their search for alternative and equally reasonable explanations.

Burch’s book is a history of medicine with many intriguing stories about people, personalities, penicillin, opium, thalidomide, and the other usual subjects of medical history; but it is also an explanation of the scientific method and a commentary on modern medicine’s failure to rigorously and consistently apply that method.

Despite our increasing acceptance of the scientific method, the term evidence-based medicine (EBM) didn’t appear in the medical literature until 1991. Critics of scientific medicine have unfairly claimed that less than 10% of treatments are EBM. Burch points out that evidence doesn’t just consist of randomized controlled trials (RCTs), and that we have good evidence that parachutes save lives without having to do an RCT on parachutes. The 10% figure is way too low: a recent study estimated that 80% of current treatments are based on evidence.

Testing and experiment have failed to protect us from deluded cures and poisonous remedies. They can’t be relied upon unless they are carried out with method and rigor. Understanding previous mistakes helps us to avoid them.

Burch has some harsh things to say about current medical research and the processes of drug approval. Many treatments accepted as EBM are actually based on poor quality studies. 62% of studies change the definition of what they are studying between ethical approval and publication. Some studies are stopped prematurely because of apparently clear benefits or risks to patients: this is usually a mistake that diminishes the quality of data. It might be better to finish the study as planned and harm a few patients today than to harm thousands of patients later because of a false conclusion.

People worry about withholding new drugs from needy patients while they undergo testing. They worry about the ethics of offering placebos to patients when a new drug offers an apparently effective treatment. But history has shown that the new drugs in these trials are just as likely to harm as to help.
A drug’s effects, even if they are moderately large, can almost never be reliably figured out on the basis of personal experience.
Doctors are still reluctant to trust science when it goes against their prejudices. He tells how cardiologists strongly supported the first Coronary Care Units (CCUs). A study was done comparing CCU treatment to home treatment for heart attacks. The researchers told the cardiologists that there were fewer deaths in the CCU but that the difference didn’t reach statistical significance. The cardiologists all thought this trend was a strong enough reason to insist on CCUs. Then the researchers admitted they had lied: the numbers were correct but reversed. The trend had actually favored home care. Based on the same quality of evidence, the cardiologists now did not consider the data a strong enough reason to insist on home care!

Medicine is becoming more scientific and more evidence-based every day, but we can and should do better.
What is needed is a culture, regulatory and intellectual, where every attempt is made to ensure new medical interventions are used solely in randomized trials. Only when their effects have been determined should they become available for use outside a trial setting. Until then there is a moral obligation on doctors to use unknown drugs and treatments only in such a way as to come to an understanding of them, and a moral obligation on patients to demand treatments that are either supported by sound evidence or only given as part of a trial which will uncover some.
This is good advice for mainstream medicine, and it is even more important for alternative medicine, which Burch doesn’t address. Since by definition “alternative” medicine is medicine that has not been proven effective, following these guidelines would eliminate any use of alternative medicine outside of a clinical trial. I know, the money isn’t there and it would be difficult to implement, but the principle is irrefutably sound. (That’s assuming that we want to avoid using placebos and find out what really works; but I don’t think the general public wants that. I suspect they would resist and prefer to cling to untested beliefs.)

Here’s a sampling of some of Burch’s quotable words of wisdom:
There is a bitter joke in modern medicine: the violence with which someone makes an argument is inversely proportional to the amount of evidence they have backing it up.
Trials can be full of statistics; difficult to understand and laborious to undertake. They have a loveliness to them all the same, and it comes from their power to uncover parts of the reality we live in.
[It is] our nature to prefer credulity to doubt, confidence to skepticism. We share a tendency to simplify and confuse things, to slip into mental habits that let us down.
The idea that even the most reasonable-sounding theories should be subjected to tests probably has more potential to make the world a better place than all the drugs that doctors possess. Economics, politics, social care and education are full of policies that are based on beliefs held as a matter of principle rather than because they are supported by objective tests. Humility, even more than pills, is the healthiest thing that doctors have to offer.
This book is well-written, entertaining, and provides much food for thought. It’s a great way to learn about fascinating incidents in the history of medicine and a great way to learn what constitutes truly science-based medicine and how to avoid the errors of the past, the errors in thinking that we flawed humans are all susceptible to.

Saturday, March 6, 2010

The science and technology of air traffic control

The science and technology of air traffic control
By Arun Reddy

The typical image people have of air traffic control (ATC) is that of a group of people in an airport tower who coordinate aircraft activity by staring at radar screens that use points of light to represent aircraft. While not fundamentally incorrect, this isn't a fair representation of the extent of ATC operations. This article will flesh out that simplistic image and introduce you to the equipment, technologies, and procedures that go into keeping aircraft and air travelers safe in the air and on the ground. We'll look at the way air traffic control is organized, and explore the communication technologies that air traffic controllers use to keep in touch with air crew and ground personnel. We'll also look at the radar technologies used to keep track of aircraft, and we'll end with a brief look at some next-generation technologies.

Safety and wake turbulence

The primary mandate of air traffic control is to ensure the safe transport of people and cargo by keeping aircraft at a safe distance from each other and expediting the flow of traffic. Air traffic controllers have access to sophisticated radar systems that provide an overview of the airspace they control, and they have communication tools to coordinate flight paths with the air crew. Pilots lack the tools necessary to get an overview of the airspace, so they have to rely on air traffic controllers to guide the aircraft through congested airspace.

Since aircraft travel at significantly higher speeds compared to other common modes of transport, the time available for pilots to react to a dangerous situation can be quite short. Thus it's essential that flight paths are carefully planned and managed to minimize the risk of a collision. This is especially true around major airports where the density of aircraft in a given volume of airspace is higher than average.

Turbulence created by wingtip vortices and exhaust gases from jet engines can be significant when aircraft are in close proximity. This phenomenon, called "wake turbulence," can adversely affect trailing aircraft if the distance between them falls below a certain limit. This limit depends on the mass of the two aircraft. For instance, a light aircraft following a heavy aircraft is more susceptible to wake turbulence than a heavy aircraft in the same situation. Therefore, aircraft approaching an airfield have to be carefully sequenced in a manner that takes such factors into consideration. Additionally, weather conditions such as low cloud, heavy rain, or snow blizzards can mean that pilots can't see other aircraft in the vicinity and have to use their instruments and instructions from air traffic control to navigate.

Types of ATC

Air traffic controllers are organized into various groups, each of which is in charge of handling a distinct portion of the aircraft's flight. Each group has a designated airspace that it controls, and aircraft are handed off to the next group of controllers as it approaches the limits of the prior group's airspace. The airspace controlled by each group is further divided into sectors that are themselves handled by individual controllers. The way these groups are organized varies from country to country and depends on the extent of controlled airspace and number of aircraft handled.

The tower controllers are the most visible group. From their vantage point on the airport tower, they have a visual overview of all the important parts of the airport tarmac, such as runways and taxiways. Tower controllers monitor the airspace surrounding the airports and keep track of approaching and departing aircraft. At well-equipped airports, they may even have access to surface movement radar systems to monitor aircraft and support vehicles as they move on the ground.

Once the aircraft is in the air and clear of the airfield, tower control hands the aircraft off to a departure controller. These controllers are typically based at facilities a good distance from the airport. With the use of surveillance radars, they are able to monitor air traffic around the airport. These facilities are called Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) facilities in the US. In an area like New York, where airports are close to one another, a TRACON facility can service multiple airports. The controllers here ensure that the planes approaching and departing the airspace they control are following designated flight paths and speeds. TRACON facilities also sequence the aircraft that are coming in to land, in order to ensure that they are adequately separated to minimize any wake turbulence effects. Departure controllers also need to take into account aircraft that may be flying through their airspace, and keep them separated from aircraft landing or taking-off.

As the aircraft exits the TRACON airspace, a facility known as an Area Control Center (ACC) takes over. These facilities monitor the aircraft's flight while in controlled airspace through remote radar stations. Each ACC will have a designated airspace that it supervises. An aircraft may fly through multiple ACC sectors as it flies to its destination, with each ACC handing off control of the aircraft to the next ACC as it exits the former's airspace. Once an aircraft gets closer to its destination airport, the ACC controllers hand off responsibility to the approach controllers at the local TRACON, who guide and sequence the aircraft to the active runway, and finally to the tower controllers.

ATC Radar Systems

Air traffic controllers use radar systems positioned at or near the ATC facility to get a real-time overview of the aircraft flying in the airspace they control. Radar technology for detecting aircraft first became popular during the wars in the first half of the last century and played a vital role in their outcome. First-generation radar systems served as early warning systems; these systems had relatively poor resolution, and their only purpose was to alert their operators to the presence of flying objects in the radar's field of view. These early radars operated by emitting a continuous radio signal and listening for any echos, but they weren't able to use these echos to gauge the size of the aircraft, calculate its ground speed or altitude, or determine if the aircraft belonged to an ally or the opposition.

After the war, radar technology was advanced with improved electronics and materials for antenna construction. This allowed for systems that were much more efficient and had higher resolution. The Air Traffic Controllers today are served by many types of radar equipment such as Primary Surveillance Radars (PSR), Secondary Surveillance Radars (SSR), and Mode S for monitoring traffic in the air, and Surface Movement Radars (SMR) for traffic on the ground.

Primary Surveillance Radar (PSR)

The Primary Surveillance Radar is the traditional form of radar that most people are familiar with. The radar sends a directed pulse into the atmosphere, and when that pulse encounters an object it gets reflected back to the radar station. By having precise knowledge of the orientation of the radar and the time between the sending and receiving of the radio pulse, the bearing of the object with respect to the radar station and its approximate distance can be calculated. The radar is typically enclosed in a dome to protect it from adverse weather. The PSR cannot determine the altitude or elevation of the aircraft relative to that of the radar station. For this to be possible, a second radar that sweeps the sky vertically would be required. However, such technology is typically only found in Precision Approach Radar installations at military facilities to assist pilots with landing aircraft.

The potential for an aircraft to be detectable by the PSR depends on its Radar Cross Section (RCS). The RCS depends on a number of factors, including the distance between the aircraft and the radar, and the size of the aircraft. A larger aircraft, for instance, would be visible at a greater distance than a smaller aircraft due to the larger surface area available for reflecting the radar waves. Other factors, such as reflectivity properties of the aircraft skin, the wavelength of the radar signal, and the angle at which the radar signal is incident on the aircraft (and thereby reflected), also play a part in how visible an aircraft is to the PSR.

Secondary Surveillance Radar (SSR)

The Secondary Surveillance Radar system—or Air Traffic Control Radar Beacon System (ATCRBS) as it is sometimes referred to—is comprised of the ATC radar installation and a transponder that rides onboard the aircraft being monitored. The origins of SSR lie in the "identify friend or foe" system used by the military to distinguish allied and enemy aircraft. While a Primary Surveillance Radar listens for reflected radio signals, the Secondary Surveillance Radar listens for messages from the aircraft's transponder. The radar rotates about the vertical axis similar to a PSR, but transmits a specific signal on 1030 MHz. This signal is subsequently received by the aircraft's onboard transponder, which responds with a reply on 1090 MHz. Much like the PSR, the bearing and distance of the aircraft with respect to the radar installation can be calculated with precise knowledge of the orientation of the radar when the signal was transmitted.

The SSR system has many advantages over PSR. Firstly, since it doesn't rely on radio waves being reflected back by the aircraft, the radar cross section of the aircraft does not form a part of the equation. All aircraft in range of the radar, regardless of size, composition, or distance from the radar, can be "heard" equally well. Secondly, since the signal received by the radar originates on the aircraft, the signal is subject to less attenuation compared to a PSR signal. This is because the reflected PSR signal has to travel twice as much as the SSR signal. This also implies that the signal transmission power for an SSR can be much lower than that of a PSR.

While SSR has many advantages, the prime disadvantage is that the system needs a properly functioning transponder on the aircraft for it to work. An aircraft without a transponder would effectively be invisible to the SSR. For this reason, PSRs are still used as a backup mechanism in most parts of the world. The Federal Aviation Regulations (FAR) in the US (and similar regulations in most countries) require aircraft operating in air traffic controlled airspace to have an operational transponder.

SSR Modes

The signal transmitted by the SSR is termed the "interrogation signal." There are different modes of interrogation that compliant transponders respond to. Civil aircraft typically respond to interrogation modes A and C.

In Mode A, the transponder responds with its squawk code, a unique identifier for the aircraft assigned by ATC comprising of four octal numbers. This code enables ATC to differentiate between the various aircraft being monitored, though it can also be used to discretely communicate the existence of an emergency situation onboard the aircraft. For instance, a squawk code of 7500 indicates that the aircraft has been hijacked, and a squawk code of 7600 indicates that the pilots are unable to communicate with ATC.

In Mode C, the transponder responds with the aircraft's pressure altitude, which is the altitude above sea level as calculated using the barometric reading at the aircraft's altitude. The altitudes reported are in 100-feet increments. This information is vital for ATC to ensure that aircraft flying in close proximity have adequate vertical separation.


A Garmin Mode S Transponder (Credit: Garmin)

Mode S is an improved secondary surveillance mode, and it operates over the same radio frequencies as SSR, making it backwards compatible. While Modes A and C in the legacy SSR system "broadcast" an interrogation message to all aircraft in the path of the radar beam, Mode S selectively interrogates individual aircraft using a 24 bit identifier that is assigned to the aircraft upon registration.

Mode S has a number of advantages over Modes A and C, the first of which is that its selective interrogation approach reduces the workload on the system, as it might be inundated with SSR replies in heavily congested airspace. Secondly, the legacy SSR system allowed for a transponder identification code of only four octal digits (12 bits) that yielded just 4096 codes (not including reserved codes) which were assigned by ATC. To complicate matters, this could be different for the same aircraft in different ATC sectors. As the number of aircraft increased over the past few decades, there was a scarcity in the number of available transponder codes, but move to a 24 bit addressing system alleviated the problem. Finally, the altitude reporting in Mode C was in increments of 100 feet, but this was improved to increments of 25 feet, allowing controllers to have a more accurate picture of aircraft positions.


Surface Movement Radar Display at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport (Credit: Mark Brouwer)

Surface Movement Radar (SMR)

The airfield can be a busy place, with pushback tugs, tractors with baggage containers in tow, refuelling trucks, catering trucks, airport security vehicles, and (of course) aircraft. While the PSR and SSR provide controllers with an overview of aircraft in the air, the surface movement radar provides a real-time view of aircraft and support vehicles on the ground at airports. Most modern airports have Ground Control in charge of ensuring that critical patches of the airport tarmac such as active runways and taxiways are safe for moving aircraft.

Ground Control can observe all moving vehicles and aircraft on a radar screen overlaid on a map of the airport. As the objects being tracked by an SMR are relatively smaller than those tracked by a PSR or SSR, the radar uses a much shorter wavelength (and correspondingly higher frequency) with a narrow beam for a higher resolution result. Depending on the size of the airport, multiple installations of this sort may be required to cover all the critical parts of the airport. Enhancements to this basic system include having airport support vehicles installed with transponders that can be queried to ascertain location. Similarly, aircraft transponders can be queried to augment the radar display with call signs. Information from the tower radar can also be incorporated to display approaching aircraft. Newer systems can even aurally warn controllers of potential runway incursions and conflicts, so that action can be taken in time to avoid disaster. Such a system is generally called an Airport Movement Area Safety System.

Unfavorable weather conditions such as heavy rain and fog can lead to a reduction in visibility, making it difficult to monitor the tarmac. Runway incursions are a constant danger in such challenging conditions. A runway incursion is described by ICAO (International Civil Aviation Authority) as the incorrect presence of an aircraft, vehicle, or person on the protected area of a surface designated for the landing and take-off of aircraft. The Tenerife Airport Disaster, the deadliest accident in aviation history, was as a result of two aircraft colliding with each other on the runway. The incident occurred in heavy fog and at a time when the air traffic controller on duty could not see the two aircraft, nor could the two pilots see each other. A more recent incident that highlights the importance of the surface movement radar in emergency situations is the crash of British Airways flight 038 on the threshold of runway 27L at London Heathrow Airport. The video on this Wikileaks article shows the SMR display (update: link now appears to be down). Emergency vehicles can be seen rushing to the scene of the accidents moments after it occurs.

Air-Ground Voice Communication

In the early years of aviation, when there were fewer planes in the sky than we have today and there was not much need for pilots to communicate with ground personnel, signalling was often done using lights and flags. But with an increase in aircraft, a more efficient and unambiguous two-way communication system became necessary. At the same time, radio technology was progressing, and it became feasible for aircraft to have radio transceivers on board.

Aircraft communication in the early years was over the HF (High Frequency) range of the radio spectrum. In the US, each airline company had its own dedicated radio frequency over which company pilots communicated with their operators on the ground. But over time, with an increase in airliner companies and air traffic, this system soon led to a depletion in the available frequencies on the spectrum. The problem was resolved by setting up a common entity that provided air traffic coordination services. This allowed for a better use of the available radio spectrum, as pilots communicated with air traffic personnel over common frequencies. Over time, this system evolved to the air traffic control system we have today.

Modern civil aviation uses the HF (High Frequency) and VHF (Very High Frequency) parts of the spectrum for communication between aircraft and ATC. Military aviation in various countries are also known to operate in UHF (Ultra High Frequency). Early air to ground voice communication was over HF, but VHF started to get adopted in the 1930s and 1940s.

VHF communication

VHF is the predominant frequency range used by civil aviation in most parts of the world, and communication usually happens over the 118 MHz to 138 MHz frequency range via an amplitude modulated (AM) signal. (FM radio, in comparison, is over frequencies from 87 MHz to 108 MHz in most countries, and is of course, frequency modulated.) The frequency 121.5 MHz is reserved for emergencies in the VHF frequency range.

VHF transmissions rely heavily on a line-of-sight between the transmitter and receiver. This doesn't necessarily mean a visual line-of-sight, however, but a "radio line-of-sight" in the VHF part of the spectrum. Solid structures, such as buildings or the earth's surface, tend to attenuate the signal (or reduce its strength). Additionally, atmospheric layers do not refract or reflect VHF waves well. Due to these characteristics of VHF propagation, and due to the curvature of the earth, an aircraft below a VHF transmitter's radio horizon would typically fall outside its range. Thus the nature of the terrain and the height of the aircraft above the ground plays a part in determining whether it is in range of a given ground station operating over VHF frequencies.

For instance, the range would be severely curtailed for low-flying aircraft in hilly areas or urban areas with tall skyscrapers. In such cases, signal repeaters can be used to increase coverage. Theoretically, an aircraft at cruise altitude, flying in ideal weather conditions with a good quality transceiver can expect to communicate with a station unobstructed by hilly terrain about 200 nautical miles away (370 kilometers or 230 miles). In less than ideal real-world conditions however, this range can be significantly lower.

VHF operating frequencies are allocated to ATC stations in such a way that they do not interfere with each other, and since VHF relies on line-of-sight, frequencies can be reused by other distant stations. A typical activity for controllers is to pass on the frequency used by the next ATC sector to the pilot as the aircraft exits the ATC's airspace.

HF communication

When flying over large expanses of water, VHF communication, due to its line-of-sight nature becomes unusable. Additionally it would be impractical to construct, operate and maintain VHF relay stations in the middle of the ocean. So in these situations, HF can be used to communicate with an aircraft below the station's horizon and often many thousands of nautical miles away. In some cases, HF transmissions are known to have been successfully received on the other side of the planet. Thus pilots flying certain oceanic routes that are outside radar coverage use HF to periodically report their position to the oceanic control station for the sector they are flying in.

HF has some major drawbacks that make it impractical for more widespread applications. First, HF signal propagation is highly dependent on atmospheric conditions and solar activity, making HF communication comparatively noisy and unreliable. Due to this variability, ATC stations operating over HF have a number of alternative frequencies that they can operate over, and they switch to the frequency with the best signal propagation characteristics at the time.

It's also the case that HF signals have a longer wavelength than VHF signals, so the antennas used for transmitting and receiving are much larger, as well. And HF transmitters also operate at a higher power, since the receivers may potentially be hundreds of nautical miles away.

Next-generation Technologies

The aviation industry has been relatively conservative in its approach to adopting new technologies, so a number of the systems described so far are based on technology that has been around for at least a few decades. This conservatism is primarily attributable to the safety and reliability considerations that must be taken into account when making changes to existing equipment and procedures.

While tried-and-true systems do provide the required safety, this safety may at times come at the cost of efficiency. Critics of the current air traffic control systems claim that efficiency gains of many percentage points remain to be realized by more intelligent routing in controlled airspace that allows for lower separation distances between aircraft.

Currently, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) in the US is studying the implementation of various next-generation technologies to improve the efficiency of the ATC system while retaining or improving the level of safety. NextGen will incorporate global positioning satellites, digital communication networks, data networking, and improved weather forecasting to improve efficiency. Of all the technologies being considered, Automatic Dependant Surveillance (ADS-B) is being billed as the the future of air traffic control and as the backbone of the NextGen system.

Automatic Dependant Surveillance—Broadcast (ADS-B)

ADS-B is a relatively new technique (compared to use of primary and secondary surveillance radar) to monitor aircraft. The technique uses the global positioning system (GPS) to provide an accurate report of an aircraft's position. As the name suggests, this is a broadcast technique where an aircraft equipped with an ADS-B transponder routinely broadcasts data. Using similar information from all aircraft, the air traffic controllers can build an accurate picture of aircraft positions. ADS-B is able to provide information not unlike an SSR, but without the requirement for a radar installation or transmissions from a ground station.

The aircraft typically transmits its identity, current position, speed, and direction of travel (among other parameters) over a digital link, twice every second. Due to the broadcast nature of the data, other aircraft in the region can also receive this information and provide their pilots with an overview of the traffic in the neighborhood as well. One of the advantages of the ADS-B system is that the receiver can be relatively simple and inexpensive. Another advantage is that ground vehicles at the airport can use the same system to report their location on the airport tarmac which can be incorporated into the Airport Movement Area Safety System described earlier.

One of the disadvantages of ADS-B is that the system relies on the GPS system for accurate reporting of position information. Loss or degradation of the GPS signal could potentially put lives in danger. This can be mitigated to an extent by alternative sources of positioning information such as the European Galileo project, the Russian GLONASS project or the Chinese Beidou project, when they become fully operational. The other disadvantage is that a malfunctioning or inoperative transponder could render the aircraft invisible, or worse, broadcast false information. This is one reason for the continued use of surveillance radars as backup. Given the relative simplicity and cost-effectiveness of building an ADS-B transponder (compared to surveillance radars) and the open nature of the system, critics fear it is also a security hazard as it would in theory be possible to spoof data to represent aircraft that don't actually exist.

Listening to ATC and Tracking Aircraft

ATC and pilots communicate over open, well-advertised frequencies. Since VHF communication takes place using frequencies between 118 MHz to 138 MHz, a frequency range not commonly available on general purpose radio receivers, a scanner that can tune into these frequencies is required. It isn't unusual for serious aviation enthusiasts to invest in a good quality scanner to listen to their local air traffic controllers and pilots. Sites such as Live ATC stream ATC broadcasts from various ATC facilities in the world. One must, however, exercise caution and check local laws first, as listening to ATC is illegal in certain jurisdictions. HF communications also occur over open, well-advertised frequencies and, unlike VHF, general purpose shortwave radios often have the frequency range to tune into oceanic ATC. Due to the nature of HF propagation, it may be possible to listen to controllers thousands of miles away, but the reception quality will vary.

The ADS-B system, as it operates currently, is an open system as well. It is possible to purchase an ADS-B receiver for as little as $600. A number of enthusiast sites such as Flightradar24.com (Scandinavian region), Zurich University of Applied Sciences' School of Engineering radar site (Switzerland) and Casper (Netherlands) provide an overview of aircraft in their region by listening to ADS-B transmissions.